Elliott Wave 5.0 "Reboot"

Saturday, November 5, 2016

Crude Oil 2008-2016 Cycle Degree Review



With these weekly charts the pattern changes and the prices are different as well. Sometimes they are only a few dollars apart, but the 2016 bottom price can be much different.  The Cycle degree peak is still alive and well, which was followed by one crazy bear market that ended up with an extreme bottom in early 2016. I believe this huge bear market can fit into a zigzag with diagonal waves ending in 2016.  Ok, but the 2016 low, may just be just an “A” wave bottom in Primary degree.  This means we have a huge bear market rally coming, but this rally will be so large, that everyone will eventually throw in the white towel and call it a, “Bull market”.  Of course, as soon as the media declare it as a bull market, It will be ready to crash once more. 
Right now oil is still very cheap when compared to gold, with a ratio of a bit over 29:1 so there is lots of upside still built into the oil price.  Since the late 1990s, we have had 3 crude oil gluts and when each glut was declared and recognized by the public, what do think happened? The price of oil soared each time, and in 2016 it was not any different. 
Most experts were tripping over their forecasts and bringing lower forecasts all the time., yet the oil market rallied in a near vertical line.  At our present peaks we have what looks like a great H&S pattern with another recent peak that looks expanded with this chart.  These are two very bullish patterns for the long term, as H&S patterns have been known to be very bullish. Especially when this happens close to another major bottom as well.  
The other very important pattern that is still in progress is the expanded flat, which comes out well in this weekly chart but is invisible on the daily charts.  This has all been happening around the $50 price level, and now has push the price of oil downward. It would not surprise me, if oil stopped closer to the $40 price level before it started to crank up again. 
We hear all sorts of stories about oil becoming obsolete, or that electric cars will take over. I think that is all wishful thinking and stories that analysts write, to make them feel important. There is no shortage of energy on this planet, only the shortage of thinking power to make it happen. 
Since about 2010 there is the start of a huge chart curve where the majority of nuclear power generating plants will be become old and dangerous and slated to be shut down, so don’t call the end to oil just yet.