Elliott Wave 5.0 "Reboot"

Thursday, October 27, 2016

Nikkei, Mother Of Bear Markets Review.




Most of my Nikkei wave counts are on this site so I thought I would add another one as it sure e looks like a massive bear market. Such a big bear market must be at least a SC or GSC degree pattern.  

Looks are always trying to deceive us and this bear market is not any different.  The largest physical waves are equally smaller in degrees, because once they stretch it is the smaller degree levels that come out of hiding, not the big degree levels. 

I have had a Cycle degree as my top in 1990 for a long time and only ran SC degree briefly. This is a triangle in Cycle degree and I must not label any peak higher than Primary degree, no matter for how long it lasts. 

Up to the 2015 peak we are now in the 25th year of this bear market, which has nothing to do with even Fibonacci turning years, but it has more to do with the big 30 year cycle. That 30+ year cycle may come to an end by 2021. 
This is about the same time that US based stocks may also hit a bottom, along with the US dollar.

What is very interesting is that the Nikkei "D" wave peak matches the US dollar "D" wave peak, so close that it's scary.  If the Nikkei has already finished the "D" wave peak, then there is little doubt what the Nikkei will eventually have to do. 

From the 2009 bottom the Nikkei rallied in a zigzag type fashion, to about 21,000 which means that the 2009-2015 rally should get completely retraced, in the next 5 years or so. 

It will not go down in a straight line, but we should get an Intermediate degree counter rally to confuse and trap all the Nikkei bears. 

This chart is also done with monthly bars which eliminate many of the little wild gyrations, saving us a lot of wave counting time. 

Massive bull markets are breeding grounds for massive bear markets, and the Nikkei displays this very clearly.