Elliott Wave 5.0 "Reboot"

Wednesday, August 31, 2016

S&P Midcap E-Mini 2000-2016 Review




I always like to remind readers that a very high majority of my postings, are made fresh everyday. Once reason I do this is to always get in a good habit of reviewing the past, as without the past, we have nothing to wave count with, or at least anything that makes sense. This Midcap index has a fascinating pattern as it is so close to being a perfect impulse that it is a joy to work with. 

If we start at the 2000 peak, and then the markets crashed produced a flat that even included an expanded pattern. Then from late 2002 the bull market until the 2007 peak, formed a very good impulse as well. That 2007 peak ended up with a wave 3 in Primary degree followed by another flat type crash. 

Now at the bottom of 2009, this chart hit another ending triangle, before it started to soar up again. From the 2009 bottom to our present top is a pattern that does not follow the basic impulse script, but I think it follows the Diagonal5 script very well at this time. 

I have tried every other bearish rally wave count, and they just kept falling apart and therefore should have been abandoned a long time ago. For the last 16 years not a single SC or GSC degree pattern has been confirmed. Not a single set of 5 waves down in Primary degree has ever happened.  There was never any room for an additional 5 waves down in Intermediate degree after the 2009 bottom.  
  
If only all the wave counting experts were screaming bullish warnings at the bottom of 2009, we would have some rich wave counters around. I figured we would get about an 80% recovery, but this proved out to be way too conservative. 

So where does that leave us now as the markets wobble at major highs?  The potential for the markets to be at a close "D" wave top, is just too hard to ignore. Until that triangle is confirmed or fully discredited, the potential for wave three in Cycle degree is still ahead of us. We could swing widely right to 2017 when the 30 year 1987 anniversary date is due. Years ending with a 7, are bad luck numbers, not good luck, as the markets can take a big beating in those years.