Elliott Wave 5.0 "Reboot"

Thursday, February 28, 2013

Grand Supercycle Degree Wave III Is A Zombie Wave Count!

I am guilty of jumping out of sequence, when I posted the story about the mythical 4th wave in Grand Supercycle degree (GSC).  I have to make it right, as GSC degree wave three comes before GSC degree wave four. Since so many people are on a Zombie kick lately, I figure I may as well get my 2 bits worth in. Even the economists are using the word Zombies.
Quiggin, J.: Zombie Economics: How Dead Ideas Still Walk among Us.
Max Keiser: Zombie Economics Explains Inflation/Deflation Split

Zombie Economics I love that idea! I will leave you with a Zombie Economics question.  What would happen to all the zombie debt if we just cut off a zero of all US dollar currencies? What would happen if one day you woke up and found out Obama fixed the debt with a accounting procedure that knocks a zero off everything, including your wages? You go to your debit machine and you also find a zero missing from your funds! Worst of all your credit card limit is dropped by one zero!
Once you walk through the domino effects, then my bet would be we get a massive deflationary downward shift on all major assets! A real Grand Supercycle degree crash!

The majority of all Elliottician's today are counting in GSC degree. It does not matter if they have not found the real wave 3 in GSC degree, they still try to cosmetically create one. All the makeup in the world will not bring a walking dead zombie, wave count back to life, so the best solution is a shot to the head, and put GSC degree out of it's misery!

The GSC degree wave counters are counting the markets as if the 5th wave is the longest wave, and once you look hard, there are 2 to 3 or more major areas where any wave student can extend the third waves. There are so many loopholes in the wave count in the last 300 years alone, that you can drive a semi truck through them. Yet everybody keeps mindlessly counting away, thinking that the past wave counts are a done deal. That's like saying climate change science is settled!

Tracking or counting backwards in time, every wave count starts at a zero wave, and eventually this zero wave has to plug into another wave position. These wave positions can all be drawn out which are called idealized charts. I like to call them scripts, or idealized scripts, and from these EWP scripts, I get the sequencial code. This sequencial code also plugs into my Fibonacci Spiral wave zero.

All my wave counting is based on a large degree 5 waves by always looking for wave three to be the longest wave. If it is the longest then it is also the extended wave.

This script is drawn out as a wave three in Millennium degree showing a different ending  for the year 2000 and beyond.  How deep any crash will go will help to determine where we are at our present location. I can describe what I will be looking for in the next full 5 waves in Cycle degree, but some past wave counts still have to be confirmed. Once we do start into a major decline then any correction between 50 and 80 percent would be likely. That is a lot of range which I knock down to just a .618 correction for the bottom of a potential wave 2.  

 All the fears that will return in the next major bottom will be as bearish as the 2009 bottom was. There would be one major difference, and that would be price. The markets may only experience a 61 percent drop, measured from the 2009 bottom, and all the contrarian signals will start turning very bullish. Massive across the board insider buying, the VIX at a extreme high, with TLT making a top.  Funds would be withdrawn by the public as they sell out in disgust one more time. Zombie Economics and financial meltdown stories would be rampant. In other words lots of bad fundamental news!

When a few weeks go by and the bears are seen as being in full control, then a miracle will happen!
With bearish news running thick and intense, one day the markets no longer will react to this bearish news, they drop and then recover in just a few hours.

When this happens then a new bull market will be in progress and the majority of investors will be stuck in one more historic stock market bear trap!
As of now we have a choice that the markets can be in one of three waves in Cycle degree. Wave "B,D,I". At the 2009 bottom we also have a few choices. Waves "A,E" in Cycle degree or Wave (IV) in Supercycle degree.  One thing I am convinced on, is that GSC degree wave counting is a quest for a mythical dragon that is not alive and real, it is still years away well into the future.