Friday, March 1, 2013
Mini Dow Supercycle Degree Monthly Chart Update!
I have explored wave counts where we may be approaching a strong top in Cycle degree. Any major top that we can have, I like to reduce them down to three or less potential wave counts. At this time I see our choices for a 2013 top, as a "B,D or One" wave in Cycle degree. With this Mini Dow chart, it is hard to get a Impulse looking wave count when we have what looks like overlapping waves. Only the DOW and the SP500 show such overlapping, with the SP500 being the worst offender.
Since 2009, this rally has gone on far too long to keep applying a bear market rally wave count to it. It is just one year shorter that the 2002 to 2007 rally but the angles on both are very close. In comparison, the crashes since 2000 have been short and violent. These shorter and violent moves down, should be reversed if we are in a bear market rally.
We should be getting shorter and violent moves up containing near vertical spikes.
All the super bears have been consistently wrong, in forecasting when and how this mythical GSC degree bear market is going to resume. Now they are facing complete destruction of their GSC degree wave counts again, and it will not be the last time.
The GSC degree wave counters are calling for the DOW to disappear well below 1000 soon.
It has to be soon because we constantly get interrupted with 4 year or longer bullish cycles. The start of every solar cycle will give us a potential 4 year long bullish phase.
I have not mentioned anything about the Jupiter cycles which push the solar cycles around as well. It is the solar cycles that give us this Mass Human Excitability and creates all of our cycles on earth. Elliott Waves reflect this excitability in repetitive patterns in market prices.
If we are approaching a wave one in Cycle degree then we should only get a partial correction, or a partial crash. Anywhere between the 10,000 and 9,000 price level will be perfect, but anything out of that range does not automatically kill this wave count. A crash well below 2009 levels is the only thing that will kill this wave count.
Even my long term trend line intersects around the 9,000 price level, which is also very positive.
In order to enter this super bearish crash, everything has to implode along with most all other indices, gold, silver and oil, nothing will be spared, as the mad dash for cash would be in progress.