Tuesday, March 5, 2013

March, 5, 2013 Grand Supercycle Degree Trash Talk!

It was bound to happen! The DOW broke to all time new historic highs today!
Today's action in the DJIA breaks many GSC degree wave counts and this would call for a total review in anything related to GSC degree wave counting. 

Will they do this review? I doubt it very much, so I would expect all the "WXY" wave counting to continue. The Potential "B" wave can still add 38 percent, but now it would be a expanded flat at best. At the same time, "any" hope that the entire rally from 2009 was a wave two in Primary degree is also completely dead. Elliott Wave 5.0 "Reboot": Grand Supercycle, Dow Jones, "DIA" , wave count trash talk!

As soon as the DOW crossed to new highs it also killed the 5 wave decline in 2008-2009. When any wave count gets broken like this, then this has a dramatic domino effect. This domino effect travels backwards and forwards in time, much like any tsunami would. It knocks virtually every wave count off it's high perch and they all must be double checked, recounted and confirmed with a new wave count. Are the GSC degree followers going to do this? I doubt it as it would be too much like work, instead they will make cosmetic changes and keep going with a new and improved GSC degree wave count. 

Grand Supercycle degree is a mythical wave count that has never been confirmed! It has never been confirmed because GSC degree needs 5 wave runs in Primary degree, and not a single 5 wave Primary degree sequence has been found or counted out in the last 12 + years.  I am sure, with the next major decline we will see them try for another 5 waves in Primary degree but my bet is that that this will fail as well. The next GSC degree failure  should show itself at the 50-60 percent retracement level. This is based on a wave count starting in 2009. 

 GSC degree wave counting must have a crash that travels much deeper than anything yet achieved.  The markets will always punish a complacent wave count and GSC degree wave counters are about as complacent as you can get!

 The exact price point that the DOW will stop at is only as good as the wave count, but when we approach the levels above, I will be looking at my contrarian indicators to see if they are being pushed to the extreme side. 

The VIX should be high, as well as TLT, HDGE should be pointing straight up.
Insider buying should be rampant across the board. The USD may be at a extreme high and ready to crash.  Fund outflows will be on the extreme side once more and the talking heads will be calling for a depression.

 There will also be a few other technical things, besides my wave counts I will watch for at that time, like the angle of decent, choppy or smooth flowing chart action. I use the 80/20 Principle a lot,  so from all my indicators I would want 80 percent of them to come in.  Risk reward ratio also comes into play as the risk for a large correction increases, at the same time that future potential rewards in gains is crashing or declining. 

This Friday we are also facing the non farm payroll report and on Monday we are turning into the new moon cycle. All hell can break lose on these non farm payroll reporting days. 

Elliott Wave Principle is a truly contrarian analytical tool and it should be common for a EWP analyst to be extremely bullish when everyone is bearish and bearish when everyone is bullish. When I see a bearish wave count when the public is also bearish then this wave count will always fail.