Thursday, February 21, 2013
USD, Daily Chart Update, Is It Going To The Moon?
On the Intraday level the US dollar index shot up like a rocket, hell bent on going to the moon. As a destination we know the moon is impossible to get to, no matter how many times the experts say something is going to go the moon. :) We do have a vertical pattern heading due north and a correction is due. This would match a potential rally in gold and gold stocks as well. The USD could still have some upside left at the time of writing, but with Presidents Day on Friday and the full moon cycle starting on Monday, these could have a bearish influence on the USD which would be bullish for stocks. These moon cycles are prone to all out failures, but there is always a 50/50 chance that they may work twice a month.
This is a daily chart of the USD and when we look back in perfect hindsight to Nov 2012, we can see that the USD started out as a 3 wave pattern. This alone gives me a clue that this entire US dollar rally will get retraced in the future. We now have close to a 5 month rally with a nice peak forming, but a violent drop and then another rally, would make the entire pattern into a triangle "B" wave. The target for a bottom is still around 75 or 76 points, so the gold party is not over yet. It will be a decline in the US dollar that will drive gold right back up, right along with the depressed gold stock ETF's like GLDX, GDX and GDXJ.