Thursday, February 28, 2013

Natural Gas, Weekly Chart Review!

I have mentioned before that there is a massive difference between the daily chart and the weekly chart. They give conflicting wave counts and may take a long time to sort out. What it means is that it will be difficult to know if the ongoing bull market in NG will end up as a big bear market rally. I think there is a about a 13 year cycle at play where NG can rally and retrace during those 13 years. The solar cycle has a lot to do with the NG cycles, but we can see NG made a new low after the solar cycle bottom in late 2008.
We are presently heading to the top of a solar cycle and some solar cycle declines have been very positive for NG prices. Looking at a NG monthly chart is just about the same as looking at a solar cycle chart. 

 I always want to stress that doing any EWP analysis in commodities is completely different than anything within the common stock world, such as the Nasdaq,Sp500,DJIA. Commodities can trend between a sideways channel line for many decades, with the occasional wild bull cycle thrown in to get the public all excited. There is also a larger 233 year cycle in commodities. 

Natural Gas will not blast off in a mad dash to the moon but it will get there on a slower pace as I think it is also more fundamentally driven, not like the last bullish phase which had far to much speculative emotion attached to it.  The wave 1-2 may also be a "AB" so we have to keep a open mind about it. Eventually NG should have no problem retracing any highs which were made in the last three years, and even potentially match one of the old tops at my Primary degree "B" wave.  NG should continue giving us higher lows to keep confirming itself, that it is in bullish phase, with 2012 being a major bottom.