Friday, July 3, 2015

July, 3, 2015 Gold Intraday Pattern Review



Any asset class can give us a surprise move and gold is no exception as I can have sever alternate wave counts at any given time. When we go back to the April 2015 gold peak I can count out 5 waves, but after that it falls apart, but this can fit into an expanded pattern very easily.  All inverted "ABCs" have now been retraced by 100% or more but this week we may have bottomed on another "ABC" which has been going for 3 months already. 

My Scalene lines are very bullish as asset classes can make dramatic moves after they complete.  I sure can give still paint you a very bearish picture but many are doing that already, besides it's not any fun if I have the same boring bearish wave count as every other wave analysts has. Every wave count I try is to run it long enough to help to confirm or trash it. Next week will decide if this weeks trend reversal will hold. 

Either way, even if it still takes some time, gold will exceed the $1232 price level. If gold will do that for the rest of the summer will be the million dollar question. 

July, 3, 2015 Crude Oil August Daily Chart Review: Pattern Is Everything!

This is the August crude oil contract and not the cash contract which will give us a few dollars difference in price. Even though I talk about a certain price level, from my Elliott Wave perspective price has little to do with it. The majority of the EWP does not cover prices or ratio, it is the present day wave counters that are obsessed with prices and ratios. 

I think it is virtually impossible to forecast accurate ratios or retracement levels if our degrees are out. All it takes is being out by one degree and basically Elliott Wave Technicians would be out by a mile.  The 2009 bottom in stocks was a prime example of this. 


Even now with oil, we have the same situation as some wave experts think that oil is going to $10. From my perspective it is all about what type of a pattern is being formed and not the price level it may stop at. Yes, at some certain price levels a wave pattern is broken, and with crude oil we are approaching a limit soon. That does not mean that a new round of bearish crude oil moves is just around the corner. 

Since the beginning of May 2015 (the $64 price level) crude oil has been in a funk or displayed bearish moves, but when we look at these bearish moves they contain overlapping wave structures. From my perspective these are corrective waves in a potential 4th or equivilant wave position. When crude oil breaks my price level then it turns into a diagonal but eventually it still must break the $64 price level. Hopefully it will still do it this year. 

Crude oil could react like it did in Feb/March 2015 and plunge to a new low, but eventually it would still would have to clear that $64 price level. (Wave 3 in Minuette degree)  The gold/oil ratio with this August contract is just a bit above 20:1, which still keeps oil on the cheap side, when compared to gold. 

What type of pattern that gets displayed on a small degree level has the same meaning as the pattern that is displayed over a larger weekly chart. The difference is from where we count from and what we call a 5 wave sequence. 



Thursday, July 2, 2015

July, 2, 2015 Gold Intraday Review



This gold cash chart gives us a prime example of a previous inverted "ABC" (bear rally) has completely retraced the previous $1162 price level.   Since the $1230 peak gold has now done this two times. Two more times and gold will break a new bear market low targets of about $1162 and $1132. 

It looks like gold has created a sharp bottom so a correction could be in progress. If the next sequenced degree is due then gold could jump above my top trend line by next week sometime. Even though there is further downside to come it's not going to happen at once and chances are good diagonal waves will be involved to frustrate  any attempt to pick another major bottom.  The late June gold rally is not in a good enough position to be another zigzag down, as it fits better into a 4th wave at this time.  

We have just passed the full moon date and will also run into two sets of important holidays so markets can move violently due to lack of volume or any other Greek/Portugal  Porto Rico reasons. I am sure we can come up with a much bigger list of countries that all are prime default countries. 



Tuesday, June 30, 2015

June, 30, 2015 HUI, Just A few Points Away From a Downside Breakout!



What many have called a bull market in gold stocks, (higher highs) has now been proven in correct or far to early.  At best we are 3 points away from a downside breakout and how gold stocks will behave after it makes a new bear market record low will be just be a guess. 

I am sure gold stocks will continue to frustrate us, but we are also looking at a double bottom like pattern. Many times we have seen reversals just after the end of the month so this sure can be setting up for another reversal. 

Any rally never showed great looking impulse waves so we now see the results of 3 wave rallies.  Even when we create a new record low any rally could be a bearish rally again, but the only difference will be it could travel much higher than any rally we have had in the last 4 years or so. 

Mini Nasdaq Intraday Crash Review



Since the early March top just about 4 months ago we have had as many as 16 gaps open and eventually get closed. In the last few days we had another strong drop but in its wake the Nasdaq also left an open gap.  The odds that this gap will get filled before the markets resume their southward direction are too high to ignore. 

In order for the gap to get closed the Nasdaq has to make a pretty strong counter rally and the VIX has to decline in response. The pattern starting out looks corrective so the markets would have to rise in a choppy fashion before it resumes its southern path. 

The present rally can fit into a wave 4 so a small 5th wave could still happen before another surprise bullish phase explodes. We need the markets to show consistent higher lows, and preferably containing some very good looking impulse waves, otherwise we are heading down to another potential letter, like an "A" wave bottom. 

Right now we have a major double top that still needs to get sorted out on which side it belongs to but time should answer that. 

The World's Richest People Lost $70 Billion Yesterday - Bloomberg Business


Monday, June 29, 2015

SP500 Daily Chart Crash Review: Can it Go Higher One More Time?



At the speed that the markets dropped it produced a very sharp spike by the end of the day .
As much as I hate to say it this still has all the characteristics of a correction in progress or a correction about to end soon. In the last month we have had many overlapping waves which is also and indicator that a corrective force is still in play.

As I have mentioned many times that from my perspective price has little to do with any market move but pattern is everything. The VIX also exploded opening a gap in the process so the VIX can see a dramatic reversal in the next 5-10 days. 

With a full moon and potentially split holidays we could be setting up for a reversal that will surprise the majority of players. After all, would it not be logical if any Greece problems were to get fixed, that stocks could also rally? 

Every bearish bottom produces maximum bearish news, the problem is it is much harder to sort out when smaller moves are concerned.  We can go back to Oct 2014 and see how deep that drop was, and yet that entire drop was completely retraced! 

June, 29, 2015 DJIA Crash and The VIX Rally Review


It is amazing how one little country can produce such hype that the entire world gets affected. Many were already expecting a decline so any news that supported this decline is actually irrelevant. Any news that is hyped over and over becomes irrelevant very quickly because if you have not acted until now, you are far too late. 

It is not  the decline that is a big surprise but it is the counter rallies that surprise most analysts.  No trend lasts and there is a big change that a counter rally will develop this week into early July.  

I would be looking for resistance at my top trend line and anything more would make this decline just another correction. It will take the next week or so to help confirm this as the decline has been very choppy so far. 




The VIX has shot up in response leaving a massive open gap in its wake. This gap should get closed in the next 5-8 days before another run north will happen.  It will be important to see what type of a pattern the VIX makes on the way down as an "ABC" will tell us that the VIX will push higher. 

If the classic impulse wave starts to form on the way down we know that a stock rally may be bigger than anticipated.  With the full moon and holidays getting in the way we could have sporadic movements into the early part of July. 




HUI Daily Chart Review: Only 5 Points Away!



Since Nov 2014 the HUI has displayed a pattern that looks more like a crab or a spider but in reality they are distorted potential 4th waves. It is the Nov 2014 bear market bottom that is only  5 points away from being broken, which means that a new bear market low for gold stocks could yet be established. 

Arguing with such a fine line does not make a clear enough case that gold stocks are in or have yet been in a bull market since the 2011 peak. In short all rallies in the last 4 years have been bull market fakes.  Once the HUI creates another new record low, then a new pattern should emerge. 

It will be important to figure out as soon as possible that a pure impulse is forming otherwise we have another fake bull run on our hands, and it just can be a bigger fake run than what we had in the last 4 years or so. 

June, 29, 2015 Crude oil August Intraday Contract Review



There is still a lot of volume in the August crude oil contract. Any decline plays well into the oil bears hype as any slowing economies reduces supply and demand. Nobody can tell us the exact reason why oil shot up $15 in less than two months but they have many reasons why the price of crude is going down. 

The consensus analysts always come up with good reasons why something goes up or down, but they also get surprised when an asset class turns and goes the opposite way. 
One reason for this is that they pay no attention to pattern but only price has any meaning. 

From my perspective price has little meaning but pattern is everything. For the last several weeks crude oil has declined but in its wake no clear impulse wave has formed.  In other words we could be staring at another "ABC", which means the entire decline for the month of June could get completely retraced. I am working crude oil as a possible ending diagonal 5th wave so it should not travel as far  as some expect. 

The crude oil ratio is sitting around 20:1 which still makes oil cheap when we use gold as money. 



June, 29, 2015 US Dollar Intraday Rally Review



I cannot update at regular times but I will update when I can.  We got our small spike in the US dollar which can all be blamed on Greece's problems. Shutting down Greek banks because there is a run on the Euro in Greece is just as extreme as shutting down US banks in 1934. When they no longer can keep the ATM's filled then you have a major problem. 
Still, I don't think the Greece problem is nearly big enough to cause overall damage. China may be the bigger problem! 

Just like any other bear market it is always hard to pin it on one good reason why! 

We are getting close to the end of the month and a full moon is just days away. Combine that with the holiday we can have the recipe for a reversal. 

My wave count would have  to slow or stop close to the 95 price level with 94.600 being a make or break this impulse price level. In other words the US dollar "cannot" touch anywhere into my wave 1 in Micro degree. 

Since I show a potential "ABC" decline from the June top, this "ABC" should get completely retraced before a new leg down in the US dollar would develop. Any forecasting is only as good as the identification of the patterns that have developed and many times I have 2-3 other alternatives.  Finding a potential "ABC" in any direction is the key as there is nothing in the EWP book that says they don't. Even triangles all get retrace, and they can have 5 "ABCs" in them. 





Saturday, June 27, 2015

A Look At the VIX Weekly Chart



This chart goes back to the 2009 bottom of the stock market. The contrarians always buy when the VIX is high as they know to sell when the VIX is low. In the last year the VIX has also displayed higher lows but violent moves can still kill that rather quickly.

What did happen is that the VIX closed the gap at the $12 price level and then blasted upward. Hopefully this will supply a support level for another VIX bullish phase to come. 

It will not take much for the VIX to run into resistance at any price level above $21-$30. The VIX would have to charge through my top trend line to show us that there is more to come.  This all looks like a wedge and they can produce some pretty dynamic moves. 

GSCI Big Daily Chart 1999-2015 Review




This is the Goldman Sachs commodities index with many added bars and works out to a very stretched daily type of a chart.  It takes us back to 1999 where I believe a 4th wave ended and of course a 5th wave stated. For all of this to stay in sync I cannot wander off from any degree larger than Intermediate degree. 

No matter how big or distorted the waves are from the 1999 bottom, my wave count degrees must always be less than primary degree. If I do make changes then the entire wave count going back to 1980 has to be redone. Being lazy and not doing the work will put you into bigger and bigger wave degrees, where finally we end up with a high degree that will never work. 

Many wave counters are already in SC or even GSC degree but yet they have not confirmed a single 5 wave sequence in stocks but we do have a few in the commodities sectors. The question is what degree of a 5 wave sequence do we have?  Counting out of sequence is very easy to do so it has to be constantly checked and reviewed!

The 2008 - 2009 crash may have ended on a 4th wave but then the pattern falls apart rather quickly as we approached the 2011 peak. Actually it started to fall apart in early 2010, as the rally from 2010 to 2011 is part of the counter rally. 

Then after the 2011 peak we entered a bear market that defies a definition but once you look at again, I can fit that into a 5 wave sequence that only works in a diagonal much like the Shanghai Index did. The last plunge down into 2015 is typical of a 5th wave in a diagonal so at this time my bearish bottom should hold. Once I look at crude oil again I am sure it will fit just as well as there is not much of a difference between the two. 

In order for crude oil to achieve most bearish status (below $10) how low do you think the GSCI would have to go this year? If it does not happen this year then it will be the first time that a world oil glut is taking a recess? 

This GSCI is well worth keeping an eye on it as it will give us an alternate opinion from the doom and gloom the oil experts have been hyping. 







SHCOMP Shanghai Index Crash Review

The Shanghai index and its crash has been front page news lately. I don't have the time to keep wave counts on many asset classes, but it is a good time to have a look to see if the index is in a big bear market rally or just a true bull market correction.  There is a big difference between the two and the support ranges it may produce. 




It also depends on where we count from but the super fast run up in 2014 and 2015 has all the characteristics of a "C" wave bullish phase. As we can see these "C" waves can produce powerful moves in a very short period of time. 


From the 2005 bottom the Shanghai Index also made a very powerful move which looks more like the DJIA Roaring 20's stock market before it crashed. 

Once the Shanghai peaked in 2007 it crashed very deep and I counted 11 waves on the way down. 7 or 11 waves are corrections so from 2007 to late 2008 we know eventually has to get retraced. Then from 2008 we had another robust 5 waves up which fell apart dramatically after one set of 5 waves were completed. From mid 2009 to about mid 2013 the Shanghai turned into a bear market before it woke up again. 

I see the entire move from late 2008 to 2015 as one big bearish rally which technically should all get retraced. In other words the Shanghai should fall below 2008 price levels before cranking up again.

The pattern it will make on the way down will be the key as another "ABC" can develop as part of a "C" wave in a triangle. Even though anything can happen, I don't see the Shanghai crash below 2005 price levels at this time. 




Friday, June 26, 2015

HUI Gold Stock Review: Bear Market Approaching New Record Lows!



The Hui has added another small move down which puts it about 7 points away from breaking another record bear market in stocks. The $146 price level will do it. All the contrarian bullish hype has not materialized, but that does not mean that they are wrong it may just mean they are too early. 

Besides what I see in the action of the patterns most contrarians only look at higher lows that should be forming.  Well,these higher lows have not been forming when we are dealing with just 6 points. 

Even then the Hui can crash and produce a new record low just before it turns and blast upwards. What type of pattern it makes on any bullish move will be important to analyze as we still could end up being in yet another fake bullish phase. 


The $146 price level matches the gold stock crash of 2008 and the majority hated gold stocks at that time as well. It only took a few months and the majority were back loving gold stocks again.  Investors only love stocks when they are going  up so I don't see any great enthusiasm into gold stocks until they have rallied for sometime. 


The three attempts at a rally has created a pattern for a double bottom, and which looks like a crab or a spider.  A violent reaction usually ensues and when it does it should break the top trend line with ease.



Gold Intraday Crash Review



Since the early June bottom, gold has created what now looks like a double inverted "ABC" which can be part of a triangle. This could force an "E" wave on us, but I am not going to push the triangle for very long, as at this point I have little room to play with.

Since I have at least one inverted "ABC" which means, that go;d still has to fall below the $1163 price level any rally higher would still be a bearish rally. The $1200 price level has little meaning when it comes to futures contracts as there can always be a few dollars difference between months.


Chinese Stock Plunge Leaves State Media Speechless - Bloomberg Business


Wednesday, June 24, 2015

VIX Daily Chart Crash Review And SP500 Rally



This morning the VIX has closed of one big mother of all gaps and has bounced off the $12 price level. What this means is that the VIX now has more freedom to move up than it has to move down.  We are approaching record lows for the VIX at the $10.50 price level so it is going to be hard pressed for the VIX to sail past that $10.50 price level with ease. 

This also means that stocks will eventually decline as the path of least resistance in the VIX is up!  We could still play around until the end of the month but markets have a strange habit of changing directions during and monthly change. 


The SP500 has now ended at the 2130 price level and it would still have to crash deep to help confirm that this is all she wrote.  It would be better if the SP500 crossed the 2135 price level as then it would set an all time new record high as well.

Wild last minute spikes have been known to fix that problem, so by the end of the day will tell us more. 














Tuesday, June 23, 2015

Another Look, From The Dec 2015 Crude Oil Perspective



Once I looked at the Dec crude oil contract it was the busiest month by far. It also produces a bit of a different wave count but it has not changed me into a full blown bear just yet. 

Let's say the crude oil can still crash to $58-$56 and then make a super comeback as the bears push crude oil to far south. The five waves I do have I see as a diagonal and crude oil should exceed $66 one more time. 

Even then crude oil could be running into a higher degree "A" wave. For all this to be completely wrong Dec crude oil would have to crash well below $52 on this Dec contract. 
After all, the experts are saying that crude oil and gold are going to $700 and $10.
All this works out as a gold/oil ratio of 70:1, Good luck with that forecast,  as that is an extreme piled on to another extreme by any stretch of the imagination.  This is a Harry Dent forecast so he is no green horn at making forecasts. 

Right now we are sitting at a gold/Dec oil ratio of 19:1 If this continues and gold/oil gets close to 14: or 12:1 then crude oil may get into a bull trap. 


US Dollar Intraday Rally Review



Around June the 4th and 5th the US dollar exploded in a three wave pattern. This pattern has been completely retraced to the downside. If this move is actually part  of a bigger zigzag like a wave 1-2 then the US dollar has to retrace that pattern as well.  

At a minimum this would take the US dollar to 97.800 and further.  This will not happen overnight as other patterns can also still emerge. 

Russell 2000 Sets New Records Daily Chart Review!



This Russell 2000 cash chart has pushed to new highs, and hopefully it will be the last time it will do this. It still may take sometime to finish off as we have a full moon on the 1st of July.  We have topped at 1292 so far but the Russell 2000 could still break 1300! 

Back in the beginning of 2015 the Russell 2000 sure looks like it had a triangle moment as it went sideways for 8-9 months. After that the Russell 2000 broke out of its form and a new pattern emerged heading north. 

All good things must come to an end as the 5th wave has some over lapping wave patterns which can fit into an ending diagonal or just a plain diagonal 5th wave. 

It may still take all of June to play out but the end is getting closer all the time. How many times have we said that as the markets come right back and prove us very wrong. 

Eventually every bull market starts to wear out like a pair of socks would do, and once you have too many holes then it is time for the markets to change directions. The markets will always keep us guessing so the signals are never perfectly clear. 

El Nino Gains Strength as Pacific Warms Just Like It’s 1997 - Bloomberg Business


Monday, June 22, 2015

2015 Another Hottest Year On Record


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2015-06-18/this-year-is-headed-for-the-hottest-on-record-by-a-long-shot


              This is still the May solar cycle so it has not been update since then.
I wanted to point out that in the last two years they have claimed each year as being the highest on record. The scientists that have jumped on the global warming trend must have "every" year in the future become the hottest in history, otherwise they will be proven to be false or have manipulated the data.  If suddenly 2016, 2017 or 2018 does not create any hottest year on record then we know the world is actually cooling again.

With the Pope getting on the climate change bandwagon, he simply blames it all on the rich. Pope Francis urges 'decisive' climate change action - Technology & Science - CBC News 

If all this climate change has been caused by man then should it not be fixable by man?

I have researched how desertification is turning good land into deserts but many countries have recognized this fact and have started to create Green Walls. The great Green Wall Of China and the Green Wall of Africa clearly show how this global warming problem can be licked. Most climate change has been created by farmers that are eating their own seed corn or letting thier herd of goats and cows run free. Chopping down every tree to burn for charcoal and not planting a single tree does not work in the long run as well.

Ever wonder why you have flash floods in the desert one day and then the next day it will all be gone and the women still have to walk hours for water?  Many countries are starting to get into water harvesting again where they capture all the rain water in the desert with check dams or rock walls on contour.

Brad Lancaster from Arizona has demonstrated how to capture rainwater and bring down the local temperature. Israel and Jordan also have rainwater harvesting or desert reclamation projects in the works.

Maybe the Pope should take of his white robes and start digging in the desert to slow all the monsoon rains down because talking about it is not going to do it. It is not a problem of the rich it is a problem of the poor who have no basic farming skills and no education in water harvesting techniques. This is all changing once good instructors and demonstration sites are being established.

It takes as little as 3-5 years to see dramatic results after trees have started to get planted!
When I first saw the results I was impressed how green the desert can go once the water gets harvested properly. In every case that I read about farmers increased their wealth and created a better life sending their kids to school and producing water closer to home.

Much of this is just my own personal opinion but the Internet is full of examples where climate change has been reversed with very little money being spend.
















Crude Oil Intraday Review



At this time crude oil has fallen apart as a pure impulse, and the only way it can keep going is to create diagonal waves. Since early May 2015 crude oil started a decline which where all corrective waves so I believe a breakout above $64 can still happen. Even then crude oil does not have to implode back down to $40 or lower as it can rally as a diagonal pattern.  This is the first world oil glut that I have seen that would be taking a recess if  crude oil were to count below $48 again. 

Our Gold/oil ratio compared to this August contract is sitting at 19.75:1 so crude oil is still cheap but it is also building to the more expensive side. When the ratio hits 14: or lower then trouble may be brewing in and crude oil bull market. 




Canadian Dollar Daily Weekly Chart Review: There Is Only One Of Three directions It Can Go!


Charts are only two dimensional which limits where charts can go to.  Even then with a constant choice of three directions it is difficult to ascertain if an old direction has stopped. 

The obvious answer is when the chart already has shown a major direction, and in the case of our CAD which has been down. The majority will always bet on the obvious trend as they have been brainwashed to do so since the 70's.  Our Canadian Dollar sure looks like it can make a new low but it can also start into a diagonal 5th wave. 

Since 2008 and the crash of the CAD has shown us wave patterns that are choppy and overlap each other. Major overlapping waves puts the asset class in question into a big corrective pattern. In other words the 2008 peak should eventually get retraced. It surely will not happen in 2015 unless the oil sector wakes up from its deep sleep.  When gold and oil wake up I am sure our Chadian dollar will also wake up. Greece leaving the Euro zone may be the best thing for the Euro as the Euro and the CAD have traveled in the same direction many times before.  

Commercial traders are net long the CAD but not nearly enough to make a huge difference. What we do have, is a potential H&S pattern which can be very bullish at least in the short term. I can draw another couple of smaller trend lines going down to give us an early warning in case of an early reversal. 

Gold Intraday Crash Review



Gold has been beat up and pushed up,down and sideways. These are the only three directions that charts can physically go as well. Another way of looking at it is, charts can only travel, north, south or east.  When they are traveling south charts are also going back in history. 

Everybody on this planet has heard about Greece's problems, and frankly Greece has little to do with it, once the news has been repeated more than 3 times. Most of what Janet Yellen has been yapping about also has little meaning as it offers no surprises. She swears up and down that rates are going up but yet when it is time to do so other excuses are used to change her mind. This is nothing new as every Fed has done the same thing.  

Many gold analysts think $1200 is significance in gold's price but I think the $1200 price level means nothing if gold is still to crash $1100 or less. Gold's recent rally since early June does not instil great confidence that an impulse is in progress, as impulse waves is what we need to push a trend, any other wave structure will not work and only end up being a fake bull market and producing false hope in all the gold bulls.

In the last few days gold has crashed but it sure looks like it crashed containing a small "ABC" at the top.  This means gold should retrace it's June decline to the point where we can see gold $1205-$1210 again. 

When a steep or sharp decline happens (they are both the same), then chances are good a "C" wave crash has also completed, but all bets would be off if a small 4th wave were to develop in the next few days.   Gold is only $50 away from breaking a new all time bear market low price so there are still plenty of chances for gold to show that it is not in a major bull market at this time. 

Stock mania is still alive as stocks pushed north and gold dropped like a rock on this smaller intraday scale. 

Saturday, June 20, 2015

E-Mini SP500 1982-2021 And The 20 Year Cycles

When we spend too much time working at the intraday levels, be it a choice or the nature of the markets at that time, it is always good to review the bigger picture to make sure it still fits together in the pattern that we are working. 

The argument can be made that the rally from the 2009 bottom is just a big bear market rally as it contains choppy patterns that does not fit into a perfect impulse waves. If we are in a diagonal 5th wave then we need at least one more shallow correction to confirm a potential 4th wave. 

For now I am working it all as a giant triangle and that we are coming up completing the "D" wave. 
What it all means is that we still have an"E" wave crash to content with before we ever have the chance to count out some good clean impulse waves.  That may not happen until after 2021 when we get to the tail end of the 2000-2020 20 year cycles.   1980 to 2000 was another 20 year cycle and each 20 year cycle will produce a different type of a market created by the different age of a demographic group. 

The date I have when one 20 year cycle started is May, 31, 2000 and an ending date close to Dec, 21, 2020. This is about 5 years away. 

Many GSC degree wave counters and economists are preaching doom and gloom as they all agree the next decline is going to be much worse than what the 2009 decline produced.  They all agree that 2009 was the worst since the depression, yet prices barley got back to 1996 price levels.  Major price forecasts for a bottom have been changed frequently which tells me nobody has a clue how deep the next bear market will go to. 

For the SP500 to crash back to the 70's it would have to go well below 100 to achieve this, but I believe this is such a remote chance that it can never happen. Besides the SP500 would have to crash through several more solar cycle price bottoms which has never happened since 1932.  Our next solar cycle bottom is also due at the 2020 time period so we should match any other solar cycle bottom like it did in 1996, 2009.  



The bottom trend line is not written in stone as we could end up with a running type of a pattern. If the decline turns into a 5 wave structure then it may exceed the 2009 bottom.  We are still far away from all of this as we need a clear top to establish itself, followed by lower highs which is the sign to the start of a potential bear market.   There are more stocks in the SP500 so this can produce less violent reversals, as the DJIA only has 30 stocks in it.  The DJIA moves much more violently than the SP500 does so you have to be prepared for this. 

July 16th is another possible time period for a peak in stocks which times well with a new moon date on the 15th of July 2015. 

Eventually stocks will have to retrace the 2011 bottom as this is when stock mania started and it should produce some support. 


Many Elliott Wave analysts are counting in very high degrees but this has never been confirmed by anyone as each degree has specific requirements to fill before we can call a high degree pattern completed or not. GSC has it requirements just like SC and Cycle degree also has specific 5 wave impulse requirements but none of these have been filled or confirmed by any wave counter anywhere. 

Any GSC degree corrective wave count must have at least one set of 5 waves in Primary degree yet nobody has ever confirmed this in 15 years. We have 5 years for a 5 wave sequence in Primary degree to show itself otherwise not a single part of GSC degree wave counts have been confirmed. The same applies to SC degree as we need a full set of 5 waves in Intermediate degree before it can be confirmed. Since the 2000 peak have we had 5 waves down in intermediate degree?






Friday, June 19, 2015

DJIA Daily Chart Review: Will The Top Hold?



During May 19th-20th the DJIA made another extreme on my futures charts. That maxed out at about 18,350 and has not been exceeded in the last month. For months the waves have been shorter and over lapped each other on a constant basis.

This usually means a correction is still in progress and that the DJIA can still break out to new record highs. It can also mean that a potential ending diagonal has already ended and we are starting down a slippery slope of a bear market, with destination unknown! 

I use previous bull market support price levels not some wishful thinking Fibonacci ratio. In this case 17,600 and 17,000 would be a choice if the bull market has been completed.  The next price level would be 15,800. These would be temporary bear market support price levels.

Even professional wave counters have problems sorting out between the two but EWI has made the call for a sharp decline not necessarily a "C" wave impulse.  A sharp decline instantly suggests another big correction would be in progress and only time will tell us if it will fit into another "A" wave bottom. 

The way this market has been fooling us, I see no reason why it will fool us several more times. 

What I will be looking for are consistent lower highs and some of these wild impulse waves to smooth out. 


Nasdaq Intraday Rally Review



Since the March 2015 peak the E mini Nasdaq has started a different pattern with mainly overlapping waves.  The first correction since then has been completely retraced but the second inverted "ABC" has not. The three wave crash which bottomed in the beginning of May has yet to be retraced to the upside, followed by another "ABC" that also needs to retraced to the upside. 

For all these wave to get cleared it would only take about 34 or so points after which the Nasdaq can crash again, but it should go deeper as 4300 would clear my biggest inverted "ABC". 

Thursday, June 18, 2015

Gold Intraday Rally Review



This gold chart is in line mode and we will get different wave counts as well. In the last week or so gold has made a move which I can still fit into a perfect impulse wave at this time. Most impulse waves I have very little time and pattern to work with as impulse waves must keep forming 5 wave sets compounding on top of each other.   For this rally to keep going I need a wave 2 correction and then another wave two correction. 

When they no longer do this then this bullish phase will be just another fake and we should expect a 100% or more retracement for the entire June move.