Friday, May 22, 2015

VIX Daily Chart Review: Dropping Like A Rock!

The VIX has been dropping like a rock and the best we could expect is a long end spike. If this spike ended at the bottom trend line they better yet as that would produce a nice base for another rally to start from.  The entire decline in the VIX has produced choppy patterns with many open gaps as well, so any major turning in stocks should send the VIX roaring.  It also looks like any rally can be a "C" wave attack where 100& retracement in the VIX should happen. 

One reader who has also donated suggest I leave my donations link up even if my postings are a bit fewer. 
I put my link to PayPal back up as it is for donations for what has already been read, not for what you are going to read in the future. Pay Fast With PayPal - PayPal 

You can donate any time and the more that donated the more motived I will feel to keep this blog going. 

US Dollar Intraday Review

I see this run as a great looking impulse pattern which can be mistaken as the start of a new bullish leg up.  I think this rally should be coming to an end but it may still take until late Sunday or early next week to complete. If my 4th wave scenario is correct then gold should also make a very good run as gold also seems to be in a 4th wave correction. 

Nasdaq 100 Intraday Review

Since March 2015 the indices have already gone wild with big swings in both direction. The Nasdaq hasn't let up yet as we approach another potential new record top. From the May bottom the Nasdaq 100 has produced another 3 wave bullish phase, which will get retraced by 100% or more, the only thing is it may have to break another record before it does so.

The entire pattern looks like an ending diagonal in progress but the last 5th wave does not have to break to new highs as it can be truncated at times. Eventually the Nasdaq will succumb to all the open gaps it contains and every advance it has made in the last three months will be retraced. 

Sometimes it takes until the end of the month but once it starts it should show us some type of better looking impulse waves. 

Crude Oil Intraday Review: Millions of Barrels of Oil Are About to Vanish ?

I will start to use the August crude oil contract now as it is getting busy enough to show good detail. 
The story that millions of barrels of crude oil will vanish I believe, as it is basically an accounting thing. The oil disappears as proven rigs are shut down and if they thought that had lots of inventory, they could have much less inventory on any next inventory report. 

Since the major top in May crude oil now is getting very nice overlapping waves, which tells me that crude oil is still just correcting, and that we will see higher oil prices this summer. 

In this wave count I had to drop it down by one degree as the correction is still far too small to make it fit into Minute degree pattern. 

Thursday, May 21, 2015

US Dollar Intraday Review

Here is a classic example where a pattern can be an expanded pattern and we have no clue that it is happening. I checked on the daily scale to see if it also should up there. It did ! 

If this is all true then the US dollar should have a 5th wave to go but then it should turn for another run south. 93,200 should not hold as that would be just a temporary stop.  Any turn in the US dollar should be positive for gold but it may take a few more days. 

DJIA Intraday Record High Review: Bear Market What Bear Market?

For the last 6 months a potential play has been to short  the DJIA  every time a new record high was created as each upside breakout run out of steam. This tells me that the bigger bull market is also running out of steam and it eventually will head south price wise. 

I am not going to give you a long drawn out multiple forecast as to how deep or where this market can go as at this point there are still many options.  What I have been counting can fit into my ending triangle very well but a bigger triangle can also be forming. 

At a minimum all patterns that started in  Dec 2014 should get retraced by 100% or more with the Oct 2014 low being the next big price target to beat. It may take some time but that OCT low of 15,800 should not hold. 

Until this market shows other wise I will  keep working it as a potential (D) wave top from which we should see all new patterns.   What I am looking for is the last peak for 2015 from which the DJIA can no longer recover from. 

Wednesday, May 20, 2015

Crude Oil Intraday Correction Still In Progress.

Right now it looks like crude oil could be finishing a correction but I think that is a bit early compared to Minute degree top I have.  Of course my degree could be far to high as well but we have some fairly good overlapping wave structures that basically spell "Correction" in progress. 

Our gold/oil ratio is sitting a bit above 21:1 which means oil got cheaper when we use gold as money. 
Crude oil could fall between $54 and $52 as we had about a $16 leg up in price.  Most of the low crude oil price forecasts should be coming back as they have been on the back burner as oil rallied. 

For the crude oil to be a fake run at this time then there is only one option and that is crude oil would have to break all new bear market record lows. If gold stayed the same but oil crashed back down into an extreme gold/oil ratio of 29:1 the crude oil would hit about $41. 

This would be my last option at this time as I prefer a bigger bullish scenario for crude oil, but be aware that an inverted "ABC" can also be in progress. 

I think crude oil will eventually exceed $100 again buy it may take a 1 or 2 to get there. 

Tuesday, May 19, 2015

Gold Intraday Rally And Crash: Is It just A Correction?

Right now gold has made a perfect impulse type move with a 3 wave structure going to new record highs. If this entire move does not work into a triangle then gold should make one more push to the upside in the next few weeks.  I have kept the degree right down to the Micro level as it makes no sense to start into higher degrees too early on this intraday scale. 

Notice To My Readers

Just recently I have removed any requests for more donations, as I have not been able to update on a regular basis. I have been blogging since my first blog back in 2010 and when I do not post, my readership drops dramatically and I cannot ask for funds if the quality of my posts are not up to snuff even to my standards.

I am not a spring chicken anymore and any time I may take off from posting for any reason the blog suffers from lack of new material.  Publish or Die is the ugly truth here and I have too many other issues I have to deal with at this time. I will still update but most of that may happen by midweek or Fridays or when the pattern may warrant it.

US Dollar Intraday Rally Is There More To Come?

I was expecting a rally but what type and exactly when, many times is a surprise. 

Don't  let the top trend line fool us as we could be in a very good impulse wave right now. I  need more evidence that this move can turn into a corrective move as it started out very impulsive like. 

If the US dollars decline was to fit into another correction then the US dollar could blast to new record highs. Hopefully this is not the case but either way we have a US dollar rally to content with. 

To all my faithful readers, I have removed my request for donations as I have not been able to maintain the level of quality in my postings.   I don't see it getting any better as I have many issues I have to deal with that is has been taking up most of my time.   When the markets are so slow I can only give intraday updates and if I don't post on a regular basis the blog readership suffers dramatically.  

Saturday, May 16, 2015

SP500 And The VIX Review

Knowledge where the VIX is can be of great help if we also know a few gaps that are still open. So far the VIX has been closing gaps as fast as they are opened which would be bullish signals for stocks at least in the short term.  I have what looks like a great Scalene triangle with a potential flat bottom if it got to 10-11 price level.Dow at that price level I still have an open gap of concern but at the same time there are many open gaps in the VIX to the upside. 

The last major peak for the SP500 was in April 2015 followed by more corrections down and the fallowed by wild rides right back up. In reality there has been very little new net gain for participants. 

The question is if the SP500 will breakout and establish yet another major market high as the SP500 Titanic just wants to keep floating. Bears attack when the bulls least expect them to, and for now all we can do is wait for it to happen. 

This choppy pattern can drag out for a long time but many times by the end of the month a turning can happen. 


Gold Intraday Review: One More Spike?

At present gold is running up to resistance at about $1223. This is also a classic setup for an upside breakout that many traders can see and there would be many buy orders established above this price level.  Chances are good there are just as many being bearish on gold so if the upside breakout has legs I will be surprised. 

The US dollar would have to maintain its downside momentum to support a super upside breakout. 

All the speculating where gold is going to means nothing if the rally that started back in mid March was just another 4th wave rally or even a "B" wave rally as part of a diagonal 5th wave. Instead of ending on a wave 4, I would end on a "B" wave. 

Just because gold has gone up and has higher lows does not mean it is in a full fledged Elliott Wave bull market. You have to have some very convincing impulse waves that have to develop and it would have to be big enough to pass all previous highs, especially the $1919 high.

I believe we could see a bit more upside in gold and then we could see a big test if the $1200 price level will hold again.  I have too many overlapping waves to keep pushing this wave count into an impulse.

All downside corrections (ABC) I did have in gold since the April peak have now been all retraced by 100% or more but at the same time we may have opened up another inverted "ABC", which if it is  true then it too should get retraced by 100% or more, but to the downside. 

The entire EWP is based on corrections in bigger impulse waves so when you look at any idealized chart any "ABC" always gets retraced specific to the degree I am working.  The above degree is a Minuette degree move so it should be completely retraced by the time another Minuette pattern has completed. 

Solar Cycle #24 Update.

Finally NASA has updated this solar cycle and there is no big surprise here. It can also be a reason why stocks are so slow and sluggish as the sun has a big influence on the markets. 

What is interesting is that the waves of the sun move very much the same as the waves in the Elliott Wave Principle.  If I count these solar waves I only have 6 so another push south would give us a solar wave count of 7 which I always count as corrective waves.  In stocks and with a 7 wave count points to one thing and that is a 100% retracement.  It would be freaky to say the least if the solar cycle activity drop for one more month and charged up crashing past the top moving average lines. 

In other words a new record peak for solar cycle #24 would have to happen or a triple peak would be nice. 2020 or 2021 would be the downside target for this solar cycle and we usually get a god stock market crash just before the bottom 1-2 year.   If it is one thing I would like to stress to my readers and that is if you are young enough to catch a solar cycle bottom then think of it as a message that a bull market is on it's way.  Think back to the 2009 bottom as that was also the start of a huge bullish cycle, as well as 1996.

By the time the stocks crash again in 2020 and everybody is bearish including all wave counters they it is time again to ignore all the wave counters.   

Friday, May 15, 2015

Gold Intraday Spike Continued

Gold started a good decline but it was rather fast which means an expanded pattern may have happened with a 5th wave now in progress. This wave I would like to see hit another high even by  the slimmest margins.  This we may not find out until Monday or next week some time. 

I may have to back track and recount some stuff but we could be ending on a wave 1 peak as well and any wave two correction would pierce my bullish trend line. 

Another Look At The Russell 2000 Intraday Chart

We had a rally that completed and now a downside is in progress. At this time we have no clue if this will hold as since mid April is now looking like a diagonal.

This also makes it a potential bigger triangle in progress as a single "ABC" crash should get completely retraced by 100%. What is now my wave one in a diagonal can be an "E" wave bottom so a strong backlash can still happen. 

US Dollar Intraday Bottom Review

For a good part of this US dollar move I have counted it out as an impulse wave. There is a problem with that as it is not nearly long enough over all and I can fit this into a deadly Scalene triangle. 
Many of the 5 wave sequences have come to an end and if this is true then a bigger correction should be setting up. 

If this is the case then it  will not take long for my top trend line to get trashed or pierced.  Since I am counting this out as a diagonal the counter rally has only one real price limit and that is about the 96 price level.  If the US dollar travels much further then the next pattern would be an ending diagonal or we are in a bigger triangle.  I think any ending diagonal should not happen in this position as I have never used it before and won't start now, but a diagonal 4th wave rally could work. 

By Monday we will be well into the new moon phase and the new moon has been known to be very bullish for the US dollar.

Thursday, May 14, 2015

Another Look At the Silver Jump In Price

Silver has charged up about what I expected but has little meaning depending on where we start any count from.  This fast move up I would never stay long in it as you would be very lucky to take any type of a profit. 

From the late March peak, peak has declined in a very choppy style, this has now all been retraced by a wide margin and confirms that that decline was a corrective decline which could be part of a bigger  triangle. 

From the late April bottom we have a completed zigzag and we would need one more set of 5 waves to trash my wave counts. At $16.70 the zigzag would stay confirmed otherwise we would be at a wave 3 in Micro degree. 

Sometimes traders do not want to stay long before any long weekend so they just might get a selling spur up their back sides on Fridays. 

It may be difficult to understand for many but I look for "ABC" corrective waves but also at the same time I look for potential inverted "ABC" waves. Inverted "ABCs" are bearish rallies and will always contain some type of a "C" bullish phase even though they can be very small. Both types retrace their entire moves by 100% or more specific to the degree. 

It is pretty hard to find an idealized "ABC" in the book that does not retrace itself by 100% or more. 

Dollar Bulls Wondering What Went Wrong in Drop to Four-Month Low - Bloomberg Business

Wednesday, May 13, 2015

Russell 2000 Intraday Price Action Review

My cash charts for the Russell 2000 are all screwed up which leaves me with no choice but to use the June 2015 contract.   What I do have is that the Russell 2000 finished at a potential 4th wave bottom but the count above may be one degree higher than what I need.  

The Russell 2000 already came back strong enough to have another look as it would be a borderline 4th wave right now. If the Russell 2000 moves much higher then we could be looking at a 5th wave diagonal bullish cycle to could push the Russell to another record high, and it does not have to break any record by a wide margin.  The way these markets have been spiking it would not surprise me if they did do this.   The DJIA and the SP500 have not rolled over as they should so another bullish run in the Russell 2000 could still happen. 

If we were ending on a 4th wave top and a 5th wave is still to fill out then $1170 would be my next downside target. Even if that happened we would be faced with another monster rally bring the Russell 2000 right back up to present levels as a wave 2 top! 

You never know what the end of the month can bring us and then the last half of the year could be very bearish as we start to head into the US elections. If the market can see it early who they don't like but see that they are winners in the polls, then stocks will head south. 

As long as Hillary Clinton does not get in then any other person can screw things up in the White House and the world stage just as well as she can. 

Quick Crude Oil Intraday Review

So far the $62.50 record peak has been holding but I have been looking for a correction to help confirm a wave one peak or even another "A" wave peak. Yes I could be wrong but this counter rally has been rather choppy and only time will tell if my wave 1 bottom support will hold.  

I am looking at the $54 price level or a bit lower as a wave 2 base, but that means nothing if we deviate form this correction a long time before hand.

Gold Intraday Spike Action Review: Is It In Short Term Bear Trap Now?

It took gold long enough to finally produce another good looking spike. These spikes are usually instant sell signals as this pace cannot be maintained. Besides it has all the look and feel of a zigzag that just got completed, and if that was the "E" wave that just completed then we know that one more push to the downside in gold may be coming soon. 

Any anticipated gold correction has very little room to deviate from an impulse corrective move which means that the $1190 price level must hold as that would be my previous 4th wave.  Gold cannot even dip below $1200 if it's to maintain the force of an impulse move.  Of course the majority are so hung up on the $1200 price level there should be lots of excitement when gold dips below that number again.  

Gold has pushed to the $1218 price level already but it would have to move much further to stay within my impulse wave parameters. The gold/oil ratio stands a bit below 20:1 which still makes oil very cheap when compared to gold.  

US Dollar And Silver Intraday Reviews

Instead of turning up the US dollar headed down creating a new low in the process, with a small spike.  For the US dollar to keep right on going it would still have to rally as I have a count of 7 waves at this time.  7 waves are always corrective waves and any corrective wave has a 100% chance of getting retraced in time or one degree higher.   Hopefully my bigger picture is still true but we will have to review it via the daily charts. 

The new moon is going to happen on Saturday and Monday, may have no trading until late Monday, so Tuesday could be very bullish for the US dollar even if it is on a short term basis. 

That US dollar down spike created the wild spike to the upside in silver, gold also racking up a good showing.  I am pushing my wave count at this time as it is far better suited as a completed zigzag. 

Any anticipated correction,  silver must find a key support price which would be at the $16.100 price level.  There is so little room to move in an impulse wave structure as I cannot have key waves overlap when they are not supposed to.  In this case silvers 4th wave already dipped into my first wave.  Any spike move like this cannot be maintained and a correction should ensue, how deep or how long depends on the US dollar. 

Tuesday, May 12, 2015

China Has Become the World’s Biggest Crude Oil Importer for the First Time | TIME

US Dollar Intraday Review

To complete the impulse I am working, the US dollar has to drop much further without going on a big sideways move or develop a complicated triangle. My wave 1-2 in Minute degree could be false which will get changed in time.  The next best wave pattern may be a diagonal. If the US dollar quits making these free flowing patterns and suddenly plunged creating a huge spike to the downside then we could be in for a longer US dollar bullish correction. 

I though my correction would go higher  but right now has refuse to do so. By next week we should know more.  

SP500 Intraday Price Crash Review

The SP500 major top happened in April 2015 which has a good chance of being broken again in the next few weeks or less. The SP500 also  crashed like a rock but turned very quickly leaving a spike behind with many stop loss orders being triggered. Until this is all sorted out as a possible ending diagonal, preceded by a bigger diagonal every choppy new record high will be a bull trap. 

Who is left to get in when so many consensus analysts are giving us warnings to get out? 

When the markets are this choppy then they also are slowing down in their advances in which there have been no net gains in many months.  Only the short term traders may pull off a profit here and there,  but any longer run would be down before it will go up.  There are not to many traders around that can handle swings the size that the SP500 has been dishing out in the last few months. 

DJIA Intraday Wild Gyrations Review

The DJIA has not managed to create another record high for well over two months now.  All the patterns it has created since March 2 look to be corrective in nature, and I wouldn't classify this as a bear market or the start of a bear market just yet. 

Another zigzag added to the end of this run could be a reality and it would push the DJIA much closer to 19,000 before it implodes again.  How long this can keep going is unknown but all it would take is a trigger and these stocks markets could sink like a rock.  Will it be the bonds crashing or Greece being a pain in the ass? Most of us will not know until after it happens.  

If we are into the bear market then I can see a "C" wave crash which would have to be fairly long and it would only cover the first part and it would also change it into a flat type pattern and not a zigzag. 

Monday, May 11, 2015

Crude Oil Still In A correction?

As I have mention it seems that the markets are very slow with crude oil being no exception. I have switched crude oil to a diagonal wave count but still the correction has not gone nearly as deep as it should. Any net correction of 50% will only get us back to $54 which could only take a blink of an eye when we look back in chart history. 

It would be a shock to see oil at an "E" wave top right now as well which means a new crash down to new record lows. Hopefully this is not what's going to happen with this correction. 

Another teaser pattern would be if we got something like the US dollar gave us but now it would happen in crude oil. 

The gold/oil ratio has been stable at about 20:1 for sometime which is still cheap when compared to gold. 

US Dollar Intraday Rally Review


       The $900 Billion Influx That’s Wreaking Havoc in U.S. Bills - Bloomberg Business

This story shows how money can come full circle as demand exceeds in what they can print.

Now if only those bills were to head into gold then gold would explode in price. This may happen on a later date but too many still not seeing gold as the place to be.

Markets are moving very slowly and sometimes the level look stuck in one place. So far the rally in the US dollar has a certain amount of impulse looking wave to it but it may be part of an expanded 4th wave.  If this becomes true then at a minimum the USD should hit $95.60 or the next round number of $96.   The 200 SMA is will be down at the $90 or even $89 price level with the $79 price level being another downside target.   

If we see a strong ending spike in the process the better as spikes in the opposite direction of the trend are common but most people buy in on those spikes. It is pretty hard to change human nature but I see the spikes much better in bar type charts than candlestick. 

The US dollar bear market should return unless we head into another zigzag back up to $100? 

The $900 Billion Influx That’s Wreaking Havoc in U.S. Bills - Bloomberg Business