Thursday, November 27, 2014
I have made a few changes since the last big wave count review but my 2009 bottom I am still keeping it as if wave 4 in Primary degree was completed. The entire universe of wave counters have been brainwashed to think SC or GSC degree as it is pretty hard to imagine that the big moves we had since the 2000 peak are actually much smaller degree levels. The reason I have moved to smaller degrees is that everybody else has forced wave counts to end early! GSC degree wave counters have been forcing wave counts that have 5th waves as the longest wave not wave three being the longest wave like the book says a wave three should look like. Anyone that does not believe that the EWP can get so screwed up in degree wise, I tell them it sure can! There is no way that any wave analyst can keep 15 degree levels in perfect sequence in real world wave counting. Even Elliott Wave computer programs can't do it, as these programs are created by human opinions and not from an idealized sequential blueprint.
Dropping down in any degree is a matter of pushing your next highest degree into the future, and calling it incomplete. This is the same as extending a wave count, and a new calculation has to be made anytime a wave position is moved.
We can change wave counts until we are blue in the face if we do not go back far enough in history to hunt down the problem wave counts. With modern WXY wave counting we never have to go back very far as we can make a WXY wave fit anywhere, in any degree.
They can count for hundreds of years in GSC degree, and always be right!
My wave three in Primary degree ended with the 2000 peak which is a minimum of three degrees lower than all GSC degree wave counts. The lower the degree the more sensitive we are as Minor and even Minute degree runs seem huge. I am going to stay with a potential diagonal 5th wave in stocks and a potential drop could only be a "C" wave decline in Minute degree. If all this comes true, then we will see how the herd will panic in such a small degree of a move. Since we are in a potential diagonal, any 4th wave correction can be very deep so some obvious support levels may not work very well.
If the next impending correction declines rather steeply then this points to a potential "C" wave decline. It can go fast or slow but a "C" wave decline should be a persistent move.
Anytime there is a big potential turning with the intraday charts, then it is also a good time to review the larger scale charts to see if the wave counts still make sense.
My largest degree has not been changed that much down at the 2008 bottom, which I have as an Intermediate degree wave 3 bottom.
With a wave three completed then we know that somewhere we should terminate at a wave 4 top. Of course that is always easier said than done, because there has to be a contrarian approach to wave counting, and most of the planets investors or traders are not contrarian.
Everybody is bullish on the US dollar so the wave count I need should eventually be contrarian to the US dollar bulls. To really confuse the wave counting with the US dollar, I always have the EWP flipped upside down, which is the opposite of how I use the EWP in stocks and commodities. Using the EWP this way always creates 3 wave bull markets and any large degree 5 wave bull market should be impossible to find. Any 5 wave pure impulse wave is strictly controlled by my largest degree and we have not had a single clean 5 wave run in Minute degree yet.
The 5 wave run that started in Oct 2014 is only in Subminuette degree. All those that are chasing super deflation need the US dollar to fly as it would have to increase in it's purchasing power. Gold which is very sensitive to these deflation/inflation moves is the best metal to watch, as deflation will crush the price of gold. From my perspective it is silly to believe in the concept that gold will protect you from deflation yet they are promoting gold that it can do just that.
If we match the bottom of the US dollar to golds top, we know the crushing blow a strong US dollar had on the price of gold. This is not EWP rocket science folks as this type of action has happen many times before and will happen many times again. We have to be watching for it.
On the smaller scale I would like to see a correction heading down but this could be in the form of an expanded flat decline with a potential price target around 84. The Euro should rally as the US dollar declines but the Euro could end up being a fake rally as well.
I would like to eventually see the US dollar pass the 90 price level and even push to the 92 price level as 92 would be my previous 4th wave.
I will stick to my analysis that the US dollar is not in a real bull market but is only in a bear market rally specifically a 4th wave in Intermediate degree. Once this 4th wave is completed then I would expect the US dollar to implode and hit new all time record lows again.
Wednesday, November 26, 2014
Slowly but surely the gaps have been closed off. The second last gap closed today producing a nice Head and Shoulder pattern in the process. The lower the VIX goes the more danger there is for a bear attack in stocks. The Declining VIX is a sign of complacency which most investors take as a sign of decreased volatility making the market safe to get into. Investors or retail investors hate volatility and always get in when the markets are calm.
Even the last part of the VIX decline looks like a diagonal pattern so this can add to a dramatic reversal as well. The last bottom gap could stay open as we have two huge gaps open above us, which work like invisible magnets always pulling on the VIX upward.
You can only stretch a rubber band so far before it snaps so hopefully the stretch down is already long enough. Any large correction in stocks should push the VIX to new highs pushing past the 31 price level and then 47 would be the next price level to break. 47 is part of a Fibonacci number when I use (1.382X34)
So far so good as crude oil has made another decline but oil has still not traveled lower than the November 14 bottom. Many times the media has reported that a new record bear market low has already been recorded but on my charts oil is still above the $73.17 price level. This happens many times as the media hype can stretch reality to the limits.
For the last few months the pattern of the decline suggests I am in a diagonal decline with all the overlapping impulse waves. Diagonals happen in two main locations and they are in 5th waves or in "C" waves in all degree levels. What happens in any degree level I use across all degree levels, with the biggest issue being where these patterns can happen most frequently. A new low in crude oil should form unless this diagonal 4th wave also turns into a triangle. Any spike back up to the $78 price level can also happen but diagonals are very strict in how far I can dip into the previous first wave. I can never exceed it.
The world oil glut is continuing but this ending pattern is also telling me that a future oil rally cannot be stopped by fundamentals. Elliott Waves act opposite to fundamentals as every historic turning will ever show you. In crude oil the worse the fundamentals got, the bigger the bull market was that followed it.
It is futile to try and explain this most of the time, as the majority make decisions based on fundamentals. There is a chance that crude oil can still fall below $70 as that would also match a big double bottom going back to a 2010 correction.
The way the markets are behaving by only making small corrections is not a very good sign in the long run as markets should have bigger corrections if we are going to the moon. The VIX crossed and close a big gap at below the 12 price level which only leaves the VIX with one more open gap to close. I would like to see that last gap in the VIX to remain open as that will give us a future VIX price level that not to many people will know about.
The entire rally since the Oct bottom is full of gaps and all of them will get close in time. So far the last record high of 2074 happen two days ago and the rally from this morning looks corrective as well. If a bigger correction is on it's way then we do not want to keep seeing new record highs. Markets can do strange things just before any holidays as they may want to sell off before the weekend.
I have been working my large degree pattern as well and a diagonal 5th wave is still alive but a "B" wave and even a "D" wave top is always a probability.
Every major turning I look for impulse waves to start as they are the key in giving us a bigger move. It is all these little choppy declines that turn into corrections that are the problem. Even if we get a bigger decline they could be all choppy if a "C" wave bearish decline was to start. The wave count above is done in Submicro and Miniscule degree levels so this is the bottom of the degree barrel so to speak.
Even though riots have been going on across the USA the stock markets seem to be oblivious to these historic events for now!
I can still get many different wave counts from my list of 5 patterns and at this time the USD looks like it wants to head south. It is gold that is not reacting very well to the dollar decline that we have had so far. The last spike to a new high in the US dollar crossed as a three wave pattern which can also be part of an ending diagonal. If that ends up being true then the US dollar should keep on making lower highs. Lower highs are the beginning signs of a bear market but 4th wave corrections can blow that thinking out of the water.
Another three wave blast to a new high will help to define a diagonal much better but any spike could happen in a very fast move.
Stocks have been making a rounding pattern as forward momentum has been slowing. Stock mania is very evident but also the reverse can happen, when gold rallies and stocks and the US dollar crash. I still would like to see the USD match or go above the 90 price level, but it may not do it on this trip. Any USD crash down to the 79 or 78 price level could help to shape another strong corrective wave bottom, but this remains to be seen.
The first chart below is a daily gold chart from Oct 22 where I show a gold price between $1400 and $1500 for a potential fake bullish move to a "B" wave top.
Both charts I show are daily cash charts which have no real trades behind them. They call them continuous charts and in futures you have to define specific months when you want to trade with real money. The next forward month is still Dec with the next month after that being February 2015. My readers need to understand that yesterday the gold cash charts produced an "anomaly" that surprised me out when I first saw it. It also shows how anomalies can get produced.
Since we are hearing talk about some Algorithm attacks in stocks on Tuesday as well, I saw it fitting that a spike like this occurred in gold the day after.
To my amazement, one minute I had no spike the next minute a spike was created that showed that gold spiked to $1460 or a bit over that. This is not Photoshop or any other manipulation on my part but this spike comes from the source. With a spike like that I would have to be very bearish on gold.
As rare as this may seem it still happen, so I checked with many different styles and time frames. I checked a dozen or so different settings and the majority show this anomaly.
Once I checked the Dec month the Algorithm anomaly was not there so I know it did not happen and the world was still oblivious to what just happened. It also never happened with the Forex charts.
The funny part is I have seen these events before and most of the time they are Algorithm induced, which many call a "Flash Crash". Well, this is a "Flash Crash" melt-up not a melt-down! It happens with real money contracts and when it happens it works like the mother of all stop sweepers.
I saw moves like this but going down and then back up, but eventually that price anomaly got hit! Even though it's not real this spike will damage the gold cash futures charts for sometime, but it may smooth out and disappear in the next few months. Crude oil did the same thing when its crash started in 2008 and that spike no longer can be seen on the charts.
Since this spike anomaly registered only one way there was no return pattern on the smallest of charts. This would mean the mother of all gaps is open all the way to the gold $1460 price level. Just because it was a false move does not mean it is devoid of information. I treat it like it happen and many times it will head to that flash peak as we have a big gap to fill.
Any wild move or Algorithm anomaly like this is giving us a fast forward look at a potential price. Why did it spike so high and so close to one of my targets? Why did it not spike down to $850? All these questions I will never figure out but it will definitely be interesting to see how that $1460 price level is going to become real sometime in the future.
Tuesday, November 25, 2014
So far gold has not impressed me as it continues to wobble sideways but still seems to be making headway. In the stage that I think I am with gold, gold should start to perform if we are in a true impulse. In a true impulse my overlapping waves must be at a minimum at the critical times, otherwise I am dealing with a potential diagonal in golds bullish phase so far.
The US dollar has just finished a correction and this can put downward pressure on gold very quickly.
Since Nov 21 the action has been corrective when gold spiked to the $1205 price level, so this price level should still get exceeded on this trip.
The longer this stealth bullish phase runs before all the gold bulls jump onboard the better I like it. When the bulls return too early then this is not a good sign.
Diagonal "C" wave bull markets can be a real hassle in counting out, as they can be diagonal waves that bunch up at the bottom but explode from the last 4h wave dramatically. Since the June 2013 bottom gold has roared up 2-3 times and has crashed back down each time.
Any drop in gold, where it shows choppy patterns or a single spike down is a good sign as these are all part of "ABC" corrections, which produce the higher lows we get in bullish phases.
Apple has also backed off a bit more this morning which gives us a gold/Apple ratio of a bit over 10:1 One ounce of gold can only but 10 shares of Apple? This is about as expensive for Apple stock that I have calculated when we use gold as money. When gold crashes they call it a "barbarous relic" but when it soars in price it's the next best thing since sliced bread.
There also is an argument if gold should be in your investment holdings. I think we should always have gold and silver as an investment, but the key is when you buy it! When it comes to investing timing is everything. Gold or silver as an investment will never work well if we always buy it high or when we chase a bull market thinking gold or silver is going to the moon!
When gold explodes in price it is unleashing its "store of value" so make sure this, "store of value" is still captured before you buy it.
It's the classic smoke and mirrors act as the two other indices keep making records the Russell 2000 has not seen a new top since June of 2014. We just completed what looks like another run of 5 waves in a row, so at a minimum a correction should be due. Sometimes I can get a smile on a person when I tell them that markets can only go in one of 3 directions at any time. The problem is we never know from where we are starting from. On a very small scale, and since the Oct bottom the Russell 2000 has move up, or north. Is it time for the Russell 2000 to head south now?
This pattern has so much in common with a triangle. Even the move just before that looked like a perfect zigzag. If that is true then the "E" wave has not been fully retraced just yet. It would be something to still see the Russell 2000 create an upside breakout in the next few weeks.
Many expanded patterns look like this as well where this market could go south and only then terminate at a potential 4th wave bottom. Either way since the start of 2014 we have had some wild sideways patterns that created a double top within one point. This double top will eventually have to get sorted out to see which side of the trend belongs to the bullish side or which peak is already over on the bearish side. Many times the markets will make a secondary peak which can already belong to the corrective side as an expanded pattern.
The VIX would also still need to drop to 12 as this is when another gap will get filled with the VIX.
Just like all the other indices the rally from the Oct bottom contains many gaps so over time the entire move since Oct will get retraced.
Monday, November 24, 2014
Since Oct 2014 the VIX has enjoyed a long decline that looks like and impulse wave pattern. This wave pattern is starting to overlap indication that we could be in a potential diagonal decline. At the 12 price level the VIX would have a great looking Head. I see it more like the Middle Finger Salute and it is directed at all the stock bulls that think stocks will go to the moon.
The more complacent they stock participants become the closer we are to a stock bear attack. Many analysts will tell you this is the safest time to invest as the majority have been brainwashed to wait until the markets stabilize before investing. In 2011 investors were fleeing stocks as fast as they could and it was not until 2013 they jumped back in. Investors did the same thing in 2009 as they were fleeing as fast as they could when the VIX was sky high. The SPY hit record lows in early 2009 and they left a full 100% gains on the table before they started to jump back in.
Investors or any group of participants be it day traders or other are always too late, also to take advantage of the tardiness of the crowed you have to act when all fear is fully displayed. You also have to be an expert at catching a falling sword without any knowledge of Elliott Wave. It gets worse with Elliott Wave because every "ABC" crash contains a falling sword. In the end very few investors or players will ever use EW for anything as you would have become an expert at catching falling swords. Stock insiders did this death defying act of catching falling swords in 2008 and they do it all the time.
At the $12 price level another big gap will be closed which only leaves one more gap open down at the $10 price level. If the VIX dropped down in a fit of madness with a spike then, another VIX up leg would happen. A VIX spike from todays levels could happen but then I believe this would be another fake run.
It's about time that the US dollar makes a move and starts to impress us with a shock and awe type of a move. I don't think we are going to get that lucky as the USD can still go many different directions even from these high levels. The US dollar could blast off and give us another instant leg up, or it could die in another three wave crash being part of a potential triangle. This could make the 87 price level show some support. Either way a correction only move will not help to put upward pressure on gold.
The strong US dollar is the sign of deflation in action and up to a few months ago nobody was talking about that, but now many other analysts talk about deflation in their commentaries.
Of course "deflation" is the boogie man or the "nightmare" of governments around the world. Japan has suffered deflation for decades and Abe has tried to inflate again recently. Of course that failed as Japan slipped back into a recession when it altered its value added tax.
Janet Yellen and all her previous "money printing friends" have been doing the same thing trying to avoid any deflation. The last thing the fed wants is deflation taking hold in America, but yet it did.
I think the Canadian fed is oblivious to what is happening as we think we have the perfect banking system up here! Don't believe any of the hype as Canadians are in deep debt just like everywhere else.
Most countries that have used excessive money printing have suffered stagnate or low growth economies. Russia has also suffered the same fate as it is hell bent on taking the world back to a Cold War. Of course the terrorist want to go back to medieval times. Russia and China have dumped US treasuries a long time before the invasion of the Ukraine. Inflation has hit hard in Russia as the Ruble has already imploded.
Much of these inflated electronic dollars goes up in smoke by dropping bombs and blowing up buildings (assets).
The downward pressure on the Euro is still happening and who can blame them when Russia invades the East Ukraine again.
Most of all the problems in the world are the democratic or semi democratic governments that are too greedy and tax people at a rate worse then anything even the Romans did in their days. The only thing governments know is how to create spending programs, and to stay in power long enough to live off the hard work of taxpayers money for life. Any election, on a local level or a federal level I see it as just another shift change like pigs feeding at the trough.
I would like to see the USD resume a bearish trend while stocks also decline, but when this happens and the bearish mood returns too early then another upward leg in the USD can happen. Eventually I want toe see the USD above $90 but it may not do it this time.
Saturday, November 22, 2014
The bottom to beat happened on Nov 7 at just a bit above the silver $15 price level. Since then we have what looks like the start of a nice rally. I am starting this count like an impulse wave which should get into a stronger phase as we move forward in time. Many times this same type of a bullish phase can be a diagonal in which my impulsive wave will fall apart much sooner than expected.
Both types of bullish runs can always be in progress and one or even both can fall apart in dramatic fashion. The last wave that crossed to new lows was a 3 wave which I read as part of a declining diagonal.
There is not that much of a difference between a triangle and a diagonal wave except for where we will find them in the basic idealized wave pattern. Triangles happen most frequently in "B" and 4th wave corrections as diagonals can be found in any 5th wave or "C" waves.
I would like to see silver travel much further until such a time when the silver bulls start to return. If this return of the silver bulls happens at $25 or at $30 is impossible to tell as the degree of bullish news has to show itself as well.
I am sure it is very hard to understand any deflation or inflation scenarios when we don't see prices go up and down in the economy. Prices do go up and down in the economy but by the time we read these numbers they have been lagging by a long time already. In 2011 when gold was shooting past $1900 all the experts were reciting all the future inflation that is going to happen and gold would go to $3000, $5000 or even much higher.
In reality what happened gold starts a decline, goes sideways for a year and then crashes into a bottom in 2013. Gold is the most sensitive to deflation and inflation which is the velocity of money. If money is doing nothing then it has no affect on golds price at all. When we try to forecast the price crash of gold from an inflationary high down to any level then we are forecasting for deflation to come back in the fundamental economy as well. Price changes fundamental news, not fundamental news changing the price.
Now after three years of golds deflationary decline all the fundamental indicators come out to the point that the majority of experts can see these numbers as well. We get the same regurgitated reasons why not to own gold because of deflationary fundamental reasons. That would be all fine and dandy but all these fundamental reasons or indicators are lagging and they have taken since 2011 to come out. 95% of all the experts did not see deflation coming in 2011 just like 95% of all experts did not see inflation coming in 2000.
It's not like this information is not available it has been around since gold has been set free in 1971. In 1980 they did not see deflation coming because all those inflated dollars headed over into the stock market which is stock mania. Stocks will always trump gold in the longer run because one reason is that it is next to impossible to maintain a bubble under fear. Gold and all commodities are basically fear related which gold has demonstrated again in the beginning of Nov. This month the talk about deflation increased dramatically but again these numbers are all lagging numbers. After you heard them a few times, fundamental numbers become irrelevant rapidly.
Now that gold has made a price turn from an extremely bearish mood, all the fundamental numbers for gold should also change. Smart gold watchers will be the first to find the inflation again, but it will not be until the majority also repeat any good gold fundamentals that another gold reversal should happen.
One good way to visualize this lagging process is think about a bull or a bear with a big ring through its nose. Yank on the ring and chain (price) and the bull or bear (fundamentals) will follow behind you.
At this time I am going to keep my potential "A" wave at the 2013 bottom as that bottom contained many gold stock insider buying news as well. With gold recently crossing $1200, gold has not lost any money since June 2013 and is already above every major bottom gold has made since June 2013.
Can gold go much lower? Sure it can as anything can always travel to a new extreme, but the lower that gold would go only assures a much higher jump after. The bearish news would all have to come back and it would also have to intensify dramatically at the same time.
I am not completely satisfied that gold has made a major 4th wave bottom even though the pattern looks like a triangle in a 4th wave. Looks are deciveing as many of these so called 4th waves actually contain expanded patterns. As long as there is a small amount of doubt about the fact that gold may have crossed to a new low in a 3 wave pattern then I will keep the wave count open until it is completely trashed.
So far gold is off to a good start and the $1132 price level has to hold. The recent gold crash or downside breakout is also a good example how downside breakouts fail more than they ever work.
At $1250 gold will run into the long term bearish resistance line and to show us a bigger bullish move, gold will have to break past that price level with gusto or lets say, "With bullish enthusiasm". If this power is in gold, then gold should soon pick up speed in its bullish move.
So far I can still get gold into a basic impulse but I will be looking for that to fall apart early, if I am wrong. Any price move past the $1400 price level sure would help smash all the gold bears and bring back all or many of the , "Golden Parrots". The louder these expert parrots sing in unison, the better. At exactly what price level this will happen at is impossible to forecast, as I could be out 99 cents! Just kidding on the 99 cents comment, as nobody is even expecting a bullish phase, when they are still saying we should dump gold now.
The idea that the 2011 peak is a wave three in Intermediate degree is still alive and well but where we are in this 4th wave is still up for debate. Any potential "C" wave bull market can act just like a perfect start to a big bullish phase, but it would fall apart at a potential wave 1 in Minor degree.
Any gold run that is still to come will be a big test for the contrarians as a gold move back to 2014 highs will give them a good profit. If gold stock insiders don't sell then they could potentialy leave a huge gain on the table as well.
Friday, November 21, 2014
The Stock markets are pointing up like they want to fly to the moon. The one problem with that is that nobody can fly to the moon as emotions no longer can travel in the vacuum of space. :)
Emotions are spread through the air with face to face contact or close proximity to other people. You can be at a dead party and all it takes is one joker or clown to walk in the door and his attitude can affect everybody else in the room. In stocks or any trend they travel in herds as the bullish mood feeds of each other through news and talking with friends. All it takes is the smallest of waves over on the corrective side and all these bullish emotions can turn bearish very quickly.
All the fundamentals like an expanding economy, job growth, rising dollar and record stock prices are all lagging indicators which after 5 years the majority of experts are starting to notice now.
When the majority repeat this fundamental good news it becomes irrelevant very quickly as prices get adjusted even quicker. Any fundamental news you may read about or you may have heard mention more than three times, then this news is irrelevant already. We are in an electronic age where news travels around the world by the time the crowd does the "wave" in a colosseum.
It is always the herd of investors that move the slowest, except when fear strikes.
It was the price rise that changed fundamentals not the fundamentals changing the price. We could be at a "D" wave top or just another big correction is going to happen as even this impending correction could be just another expanded pattern as well.
It is always a challenge as we can be early but hopefully we can catch any bigger bear trap before we get caught in it.
The SP500 did cross with a 3 wave pattern so far and it would have to drop much further to confirm this 3 wave move. Three wave moves to new record highs or lows are either part of a diagonal or part of a triangle. Any diagonal usually signals an end to a trend and they can get very volatile when they do it. The VIX should reflect this by going up as the SP500 declines.
In November the USD has gone sideways and today it created another bullish phase record high. Right along with stocks! A rising US dollar represents deflation in action but we have to look at it that this has been a bullish phase going on over three years. It's not something new or has it come as a surprise. Deflation/inflation happens all the time but all this money that has been printed also moves.
Besides moving, this invisible money also goes up in electronic smoke when prices crash!
If it doesn't move (no velocity), printed money does nothing. Gold will never move anywhere if dollars don't get moved around as well. Gold is still the best metal bar none, which is extremely sensitive to these deflation/inflation cycles. Gold has been crushed in price as the US dollar soared and only after three years have all the fundamentals come to light where the majority have been able to read about them as well.
Every analysts is now parroting the same fundamentals which nobody saw in 2011! Forecasting future price trends to continue based on lagging indicators will never work, even though the majority of all analysis is done based on fundamental news!
From my perspective price moves create the fundamentals, not fundamentals creating the price move.
Markets move inversely to fundamentals as every major turning in history can confirm.
Everybody on the planet hated the US dollar back in 2008 yet look what happen! It turned and started to act funny (bullish), catching many gold bugs by surprise.
The question is if a bigger impulse is yet to be added on to this phase, or if this diagonal looking move is ending?
The US dollar would only have to make a long spike to the 90 price level and then my 4th wave peak would fit much better. Chances are good that the USD will fool or tease us and fall short of that price level, in which it could get hit at a later date.
Today is the last trading day before the new moon and new moons have been very bullish for the US dollar in the past.
Readers know I had parts of this crude oil decline counted as a diagonal. The problem may be is that we only may have finished wave 4 of this diagonal. The big sideways action back in Oct fits a normal 4th wave very well but the pattern started to fall apart as a prefect impulse very quickly as the waves all started to overlap at critical places. This morning crude oil spiked up and instantly reacted downward again after completing another small run of 5 waves.
If oil was to impulse much higher then only a very short correction should take place just above $75.50. Any price action below $74 would now help confirm a potential diagonal and a new bear market low below $73 would confirm the diagonal. We should also end up with another zigzag when crude oil does this. Technically all it took was oil to enter anywhere in wave 2, and it technically becomes an ending diagonal.
I try to label all diagonals with (ABC1, ABC2, ABC3, ABC4, ABC5) but many times there is not enough room to do this. I am using Micro degree as my non-diagonal 4th wave and the diagonal would contain two degrees lower than that. On my Degree scale I have no lower degrees, but I always know there is another 3 degree levels below the lowest. Of course I would be crazy to count out all these smallest degrees as I do those with "finger" wave counting. Any Forex screen I look at, all my wave counting is done with "finger" wave counting. When I print out a new chart, I also use my finger to count the waves before I put any pen on paper.
Any move to a newer low would certainly bring all the bears out again but a diagonal signals, a very strong trend change when it is completed. Just like trying to hit the tops of the markets is always a problem, with crude oil we are doing the same thing but at the bottom of a bearish phase.
Crude oil can go as high as $75.50 but not any higher as ending diagonals "must" not exceed wave two in height. This crude oil has one of the longest and thinnest declines I have seen in some time, and it can't continue without a violent reaction going the other way or a complete trend reversal.
Thursday, November 20, 2014
The Nasdaq has seen another post crash record high a few days ago. Sooner or later this market will turn as we have not had a substantial correction since the Oct 2014 bottom. This is not natural as good healthy corrections are signs of a good bull market. Since that Oct low the Nasdaq has left as many as 5 open gaps in its wake and all of them will get closed of when the next big correction starts.
Markets do not stay at a permeant highs like they said before the 1929 crash, nor are we in a "New Era" like they said we were in, in 2000. If the US dollar maintains its valuations then this is bad in the long run for exporters and manufacturing. All the rosy fundamentals you may be reading about took well over 5 years before the majority started to notice them and report on them. After a while all the analysts start parroting the same good fundamentals over and over. My basic rule is, if you have heard a fundamental bit of good news repeated more than three times then this news is already irrelevant by the time you heard on the third time.
Its worse if your friends and family repeat the same fundamental good news. The majority of funds are all loaded for "bull" as I am sure they have little to no cash left. So who is left to get in? Who are those bright and smart investors that can see "value" at record peaks in the markets today? What group of people are left to come in to give the majority a profit in a few months? They must still be in a cave or they are going to invade the markets from another undiscovered planet!
When the Nasdaq rolls over then I am sure Apples stock will also roll over. Institutions and funds have a high weighting with Apple so who are all the investors that will give all the funds that hold Apple stock a profit? Insiders in Apple have sold their shares but analysts just say that this does not matter!
What I am looking for is a decline or a correction that will force all the bullish stock holders to take a second look in staying bullish. Any start to a decline I look for clean impulse waves going down and when they do not materialize then I look at choppy and corrective wave counts part of a larger degree correction.
I am showing wave counts Micro degree and lower. At these small levels it we can see some of the differences between the DJIA and the SP500. Starting with a top on the 18th we had a plunge then a rally and another 3 wave plunge. This three wave plunge down to a "B" wave created a new low which I must count as an expanded pattern. These I rarely find in first waves but can be the start of diagonal waves. Many times investors will not be happy holding stocks for the weekend and a huge sell off would occur on Fridays.
The markets have been making some fast crazy moves in both directions so I see that as they are starting to get unstable. Once the markets are over on the corrective side or the bearish side then it takes very little "bad" news to set it off on a strong decline. The speed that stock gains have made recently has also slowed down, as there has been no net gains since the beginning of November.
Two days ago the SP500 made its last record high at about 2056. When the market goes into a correction in general we don't want to see any more new highs being created, but instead lower lows should start to develop. Markets are starting to make wild fast moves in both directions which we can see at the intraday level, but they hardly make a dent in the daily or weekly charts. My smallest "A" wave is in Minuscule degree which is the smallest degree I have and it is at this degree level that can give us a clue that we have crossed back into the bearish side. Of course the markets can't make anymore new record highs.
Many are suspecting a correction already but the majority are oblivious to any potential long term bear market starting. Bears always attack from the top, so it is just a matter of time before the general public figures out what may be happening.
Anytime the markets have dipped over into the corrective side, then a news catalyst can do the most amount of damage. If this market spiked to another new high then so be it but the SP500 and the DJIA has been masking the Russell 2000 bear market since July 2014.
Since the Oct 2014 bottom the SP500 has only made very small corrections containing many gaps, which is not a good sign.
Wednesday, November 19, 2014
I don't especially like to spend time on ETF wave counts as we could have 3 or 4 gold related ETFs and they will all have different wave patterns. They also do not reflect or show a better long term picture. Either way the important thing is the degree or intensity of the bearish mood we have just enjoyed that is important. We have been getting bearish news for over 3 years but the difference now is the majority just started seeing the bearish fundamentals in gold just recently.
When they all see the same fundamentals then these fundamentals are already irrelevant!
Fundamentals that everyone can now see are the results of a price change and they are lagging.
It took the general stock market over 5 years before the majority could see all the improving fundamentals! After a while they all start to sound like parrots squawking about the same good fundamentals!
Who wants to invest in gold when the fundamentals of gold are so bad? The contrarians do as they have seen this several times before since 2000! They also know how to buy low with GTC orders and may have averaged in at $30 for this GDXJ ETF. One more push above $30 and the contrarians will see green showing for this one asset. Once GDXJ hits $36 then they will have a gain of 20% even before the gold bandwagon jumpers get serious. as they are still scratching their heads asking, "Where is the best entry price point?" At the GDXJ $45 price levels that same contrarian will be up 50%! $45 will get GDXJ to another triple top and trend chasers will be waiting for that ever illusive upside breakout!
GDXJ could soar to $55-$60 but if all the gold bulls have come back from hiding ,or are back from their holidays in gold bull heaven, and the majority bullish mood starts to dominate 24/7, then a major correction would be due if not a resumption of the bearish trend. If a resumption of the trend were to happen, it should be a short move and could produce another double bottom or GDXJ could hit $21 again. Of course if that were to happen all the gold bears will get full attention again and I am sure they will be yelling for you to sell that, 'barbarous relic'. If that happens then we know GDXJ can make a complete bear market retracement which started in 2011.
At $140 GDXJ has a big gap so at a minimum this gap will also get filled in the years ahead.
Gold had a very sharp drop today but instantly recovered most all of it. Many of these types of fast moves are the short players getting stopped out as they have sell orders being added at every low. Of course all the upside breakout artists will have buy orders above any last high, as they love to buy high betting that gold is going higher. So far I can still get gold into a bullish wave count and I switched the last correction into a flat. Most wave action ends up failing to follow the trend lines, but it gives us a basic idea when the impulse can fall apart.
If any move starts to get too many overlapping waves or impulse waves that look more like zigzags, then this rally could be just a big bear market rally, with much more to come. If bullish news starts to come back early and starts to dominated the headlines 24/7 then we may be in trouble. So far they are still pumping out the bearish news which gold is ignoring. When bearish news is getting ignore or only a correction happens then this is bullish. It's when the gold market starts to ignore gold bullish fundamental news and struggles up, then gold could be in trouble.
We have seen gold stocks come from a very bearish bottom and now have been in a rally since early November. This bullish phase also looks very impulsive which means it should have going power. I know contrarian players have been waiting since the June bottom in 2013 as some have been averaging in since then. Once GLDX makes a further move past $12 then those ETF holders will see this trade push into the green or at least light up green showing a gain.
I would love to give you a very bullish picture at this time even when I see a potential triangle that may have already completed. Everything is perfect for a rally that will send gold stocks to the moon.
There is one little hitch with this scenario and that is a potential expanded pattern where any corrective wave hits a new bear market low. In a bull market the reverse may be a "B" wave top or a "D" wave top in any degree. At $20-$21 all my triangle peaks will be cleared and this is where the gold stocks will get interesting.
It will all be about how fast all the gold bulls will return and how bullish the experts will be when this happens as GLDX could get pushed further. If in the next few months this happens then what? Is GLDX going to go to zero? GLDX has already seen close to an 80-90% drop and the experts are still bearish on gold stocks. Best case scenario would be if GLDX roared up past $21 and then decline right back down to $8.00 or so. This will shake out all but the die hard contrarians that I know can ride out this move with ease. Contrarians would not sell until they see clear signs of insider gold stock selling. This is not happening but the opposite has been true.
There are many gaps open up very high so in the future I know this entire bearish phase will get retraced. Gold stocks have to shake off any bandwagon jumpers that think they have an easy ride ahead. Very few participants understand the mathematical sequence that happens on every bottom when they jump in late in a bull market.
If by a miracle you managed to average in at $9 with this ETF then at $13.50 you would already have a gain of 50%. The emotional traders that just start buying at $13.50 have left a 50% gain on the table. It gets worse the longer they take as when they jump in at $18 they have left 100% of thier gains on the table. Contrarians aren't crazy, they know exactly what they are doing and they are prepared to wait it all out.
Very few people can or will ever take advantage of any Elliott Wave as any wave count basics is all about buying low and selling high and the majority will never do that. Perish the thought of trying to catch a falling knife, but we also know that this "falling knife" is out killing bears.
Tuesday, November 18, 2014
The normal reaction to this silver decline is that it has much further to go. I can understand that but when everybody on the planet knows about silvers decline, then who is left to sell out all their holdings? It sure is not the smart money as it does not take smart money over three years to decide to sell out now!
Silver stock ETFs like SIL have also crashed to record lows yet the general public wants lower prices as they refuse to but low. The majority think that prices will fall much lower. How much lower and what is the price going to do after SLV hits a new low? If SIL hit $4 then this would be another 50% drop. Another 50% drop in SLV would take us to the $8 price level. Would this be the right price for the majority to get motivated to buy silver? All the bearish news would have to intensify by 50% in order to match another drop in silver prices.
Lets say that a potential big fake bullish phase is going to happen instead of the return of a full bull market, then the silver bulls will eventually dominate the news far too early. If intense bullish news dominates at a silver price of $30 then the monthly,weekly and daily charts must be reviewed in quick succession.
Besides a few small gaps open above present prices, we have two huge gaps open well above any bear market rally. If silver travels to the $24-$25 price level then one of the big gaps will get closed.
The big gap at $38 will still be open but this gap will also get closed buy another bigger bullish phase.
If my wave count is just a diagonal top wave three, or if it is just a "D" wave peak, I can see silver still exceeding it's 2011 peak. All those that did not get the chance to sell high will get another chance, but I am sure they will ignore that chance as well. It would be a safe bet that if silver reaches say $80 and it is ready to crash to $9 that silver investors will believe in the $100-$200 price forecast and keep holding silver bullion.
The US dollar has soared up which just came from an expanded wave bottom. If my assessment is right then any expanded pattern will get completely retraced. This means a potential very close downside breakout should happen, but the USD should head below the 87.200 price level as well.
Apparently there is some turmoil in the Treasury markets as they try to automate everything and switch to electronic trading. Wild moves can cause wild moves in rates as well. Any fast short term rate spike can send panic into the stock market and may even start a selling panic in the US dollar.
When I first read this news I smiled as these two words, 'barbarous relic' get used at most major gold bottoms. I use these words as another set of indicators that only come out at strong bottoms as they would not dare say these two words when gold was at $1900
He is clearly saying to sell your gold low when the majority are bearish on gold. This is the worst time you sell anything when the asset class is pointing down. All the indicators he uses are fundamental lagging indicators that have taken over three years to get to a point when the majority can see them. He also ignored all gold stocks which have seen record lows recently with insider buying. I guess he wants all gold stocks and ETFs to go to zero before they are a good buy, because gold stocks must be a sell as well if dumping gold now is a good idea now.
In 1999 they called gold a 'barbarous relic' as well just before it gained over 600%.
I am confident in saying that even if golds rally turns into a big fake rally and crashes again, then there is an extreme good chance that gold will sail up to the $2000-$2400 price level.
It will not matter how many times we can say to buy low and sell high, we can count on the majority to do the exact opposite. Even if we had the best Elliott Wave count and we were at a wave two crash bottom, investors or day traders will be too scared to take a position.
Monday, November 17, 2014
Today Apple created a spike with a peak of $117 and then backed off immediately. This leaves a small vertical spike which usually indicates one of two things, a correction is coming or the end of a major bullish run. What I don't like about the entire bull move from April 2013 is that my top trend line now has touched in four places. In a great impulse we would only touch 3 points. I think $117 was a forecast by an analysts but again what good is any forecast if they don't know what is going to happen after this price is achieved?
Any bullish correction will find support at the bottom trend line and may even cross it to the $90 price level. This is very speculative and Apple analysts will have to get bearish very quickly if Apple is going to push higher again.
What all the forecasters are missing are the three big open gaps all the way down to the $60 price level with one of the biggest gaps being closed at the $75 price level. If the entire bull market is a big "B" wave expanded flat or if it is a "D" wave top we could see a powerful correction. I think Apple would have to show a big correction as it seems the Nasdaq or the SP500 doesn't want to crash until Apple does.
At $117 who is the last guy that bought the Apple long position that thinks many more greater fools are coming in to buy Apple stock? Talk about being a sucker in buying high as that spike put the gold/Apple ratio at a bit over 10:1 One Troy once of gold will only buy 10 shares? That is pushing the ratio to the extreme!