Idealized Cycle Degree Diagonal 5th Wave!

Elliott Wave 5.0 "Reboot": Intro to a "C Wave Bull Market", Idealized Wave Counting.

This chart is also posted in the link above.

The extended diagonal above is the bridge between two worlds, or two degrees.
Sooner or later Cycle degree "has" to end, and flow into or enter the SC degree world. Without all the Cycle degree locations being clear, then all the SC and GSC degree wave counts have no meaning, and all associated price forecasts and economic fundamentals are irrelevant.  Cycle degree, then to Supercycle degree, and then into Grand Supercycle degree, is a strict pecking order that cannot be abused or ignored.  This is where the diagonal waves come into play because they signal or point to the ending of one degree, and the start of a new degree, one complete degree higher. This new degree and wave count will be a Supercycle degree wave three.

Since all my wave counts in commodities have already been in Cycle degree for over 13 years it is a real pleasure to find and count diagonal 5th waves in Cycle degree. My early search for SC degree wave positions in commodities have proven futile. This may mean little to readers but from a Cycle degree perspective it is a big deal.  Many diagonals are ending diagonals which are very specific in how the 4th wave acts. In an ending diagonal the 4th wave always dips into wave two , but in an extended diagonal it may not do this. Many times the extended diagonal contains what looks like an extra 4th wave 1/2 up the chart, and most of the time this extra 4th wave is a running flat or even a running triangle. I can count silver having one of these running flats in 2006-2008. Even gold I can fit into a running flat between 2006-2008.

There are many of these diagonal 5th waves in Cycle degree, so I have lots of real world examples to work with. If I have a core of 8 diagonals, then this is plenty to start with, they will all confirm each other as the Cycle degree world comes to an end.  They will not all end exactly in the same month, but they may be many months apart which is very normal.

When Bob Prechter's version of the EWP came out, there were no examples of any diagonals, but only in small degrees. Now we have many in Cycle degree with some starting after the 1980's peaks.  I will use the labeling ABC1, ABC2, ABC3 ABC4 and ABC5 as my main method, because you do not want to mix wave counting styles between a diagonal and a normal impulse.

In any diagonal I will never use "WXYZ" waves, as the EWP book does not allow it.  Diagonals are all about zigzags where flats are rare.  Any leading "W" waves do not define a flat or a zigzag as they are a lazy way of counting.
All WXYXZ waves hide and block all abilities to see diagonal waves and should only be used in tight sideways markets.

A prime example where "WXY"  wave counts covered up a diagonal first wave is crude oil and silver.  

Obama’s ‘firing’ of Fed chief Bernanke strikes a nerve - Capitol Report - MarketWatch

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Nikkei, A What If, Cycle Degree Wave Count!

Once I go over the long term wave count, and look for a double zigzag, and match this double zigzag to the 2009 North American markets, then the Nikkei could also be in a Cycle degree 5th wave.  Since it started out choppy, then this instantly should awaken us to a potential diagonal 5th wave.  This would take much longer to confirm, and I may be dead before that, but short term the Nikkei may not be dead as another diagonal 5th wave in Minor degree may be in the cards.  

If this is the case then the Nikkei will eventually terminate at a wave one in Primary degree, but should just fall back to the base line above my "B" wave.  

 One more bounce to a new high would seal the fate for the Nikkei, and a much bigger correction will then follow. 

Breaking The Grand Supercycle Degree Enigma Code!

There is an easy way that any Elliott Wave analysts can figure out if we should be counting in Grand Supercycle degree or lower.
Just that fact that a person questions, in what degree we may be in, tells me this person has enough Elliott Wave knowledge that he can follow a wave count, or find a location of a large degree wave position, when it is pointed out to them.

Once we find this common position then all future wave counts from that point forward, unfold in a sequence that is predetermined by the Fibonacci Spiral, and one big impulse wave. Just because we do not know exactly where we are in this pattern does not mean it does not exist.
The largest degree always starts from a wave zero, and we can start this wave zero about 12,000 BC, followed  by the start of agriculture around 10,000 BC.
If we count back from 2000 AD we have about 14-15 Millennium cycles.

This is the core Elliott Wave Spiral, where all my wave counting originates  from. Three degree levels of 1-2 waves have been started, and the next one would be wave 1-2 in GSC degree. 

Panic of 1837 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

This translates onto a real world chart, and from about the 1835-37 peak, all wave ones, decline down the degree stack, one degree at a time. Counting real world wave counts can not be done without knowledge, or a good understanding that all wave threes in the stock markets are always the longest. It is a core essential rule that should not be broken. 

As this entire degree count declines in the one-two waves, to the point of the last minor degree 1-2 wave ,then we have reached the point of "no" return.

The last Intermediate degree wave 3-4 may have been the 1987 stock market crash.

All subsequent waves that need to be finished are nothing but 3-4-5 wave sequences. Trying to find  waves 3-4-5 in Cycle degree, in the stock market is where we are today.  

The most important fact to remember is that all Elliott Waves form and develop in patterns over time, and they all connect together by degree levels, much like a DNA sequence in the human body. When the Elliott Waves fall out of this sequencial code, then this is the same as having our DNA re sequenced.
If this happens to man, next thing you know we could be born with 4 legs or three arms, but I am just kidding, as it may be 8 legs and three arms.:)

All degree of patterns are always in force at all times, and we need to know which pattern in what degree has passed, then this provides a very fixed or secure location that all other degrees can be measured to, or synchronized with.

No degree in a pattern can march, jump or move forward in time, in front of the next highest degree. It is mathematically impossible in the Fibonacci sequence and in the Elliott Wave sequence to jump two degree level numbers ahead.
The Fibonacci sequence is the math that holds Elliott Wave Principle together, and it does not take kindly, when this math is abused. All the Grand Supercycle degree wave counters are telling us that 3+5 equals 21!
All the time that I have been looking at the commodities sections,  I have been counting in Cycle degree, and this has not changed, but wave counts in GSC or SC degree change like the wind.

If we take oil, silver and gold to start with, we can track back using our 20/20  hindsight laser vision, to the 1980's peak. We can see that this peak is a Cycle degree wave three. Cycle degree wave counting in commodities has never left the building, even though I tried to make commodities fit into a SC degree world several times. EWI tried to do the same thing for years as they had gold in SC degree. The main reason that it all failed under SC degree is because we are "not" in SC degree. If Cycle degree wave 5 is not completed or identified, then we are nowhere near SC degree, and without SC degree we will never find GSC degree! It is all about the pecking order, and all future wave counts need all the Cycle degree locations before they can work.

If we take those 1980's peaks as secure locations, then it is technically, "impossible for the regular stock market to jump two degrees ahead", and be anywhere near a SC degree or GSC degree wave 3.
A single jump forward by one degree can mean about a 2.618 difference, and two jumps would be a 4.618 difference, so you can see how far off we could be with just one degree never mind two whole degrees.

 For the regular stock market to drop down two degrees, to match closer to silver and gold, then it must have it's wave three peak sometime in 2000 or 2007, not in the 1970's.  All the market extensions that I have found in the past, has brought the stock market much closer in line with commodities.

I love the story about the cracking of the code with the Enigma machine, and if we think or relate 5 wheels in the Enigma machine as one degree level each, then this gives millions of combinations where the code can be wrong. I think it translates to about 150 million possible combinations for one character. Once the wheels are all in perfect sequence then the message can get through.

The lower the degree we can work in, within reason, helps speed up the unfolding waves. If it takes 4 years or more just to figure out that a GSC degree wave count is wrong, then this is far too long to confirm any wave count in our super fast world of today!

Silver Bear Attacks, Resistance Is Futile! May 23 To June 18th Review.

This is a mini test with the intraday cash silver chart.

The first arrow is close to the May 23rd date which corresponds with a full moon.  That full moon has failed the test but the new moon has followed through .

We have about 14 day cycles so in 5 days we will get close to the full moon date again.  To help to determine if silver or any asset class is over on the bullish side without the use of any EWP, then bearish news will eventually be neutered or proven false.

What would be the price level where all the last months bearish opinions will all be proven false, a slang description wording would be it was a "Fugazy".

Urban Dictionary: Fugazy

At the $23.50 price level silver will effectively have made all bearish opinions in the last month, become obsolete and completely worthless. If we relate this barrage of bearish news, to anything related to fundamental news, then all fundamental logic will also become worthless information. 

The only way that the last months of bearish silver related news can be true is,  if we see a new all time low. Even then if silver came back from any new lows and past $23.50 again, it would still prove all bearish news and associated bearish fundamentals as worthless.  

Time and price will always prove or disprove all the mainstream media's attempts at trying to figure out where silver is going to go.

July/Aug and Sept months can produce wild rallies so anything can happen until then.   From the $21 price level, silver would fall 61% if we hit the $13 price level. Where are the better odds? A 61percent decline or a 61% rally from todays levels. 

One good thing the silver pattern has been displaying and that is very choppy overlapping waves. 

US Dollar Decline, Will It Continue!

In the last few days the USD cash futures chart is showing some sideways movement. How deep the USD can go all depends if we think we are in a bullish corrective cycle, or a new trend has already kicked in. 

So far this is a very interesting decline, and I can give a good description of what to expect if the wave count is at a specific wave. The thing is, all wave counts have to get confirmed and, and when I start to see a 4th wave develop with a potential triangle, then this is giving me a warning. Since I am counting the decline starting with a Minuette 5 wave sequence, then any wave count also takes less time to confirm.

A triangle warning and a diagonal warning all mean the same thing, a degree change is coming.  This wave count is an instant wave three extension, but in commodities many times the 5th wave is the extended wave. The thought process would be exactly the same if we were in Minor degree or any other degree with the exact same location. At the Minuette degree level things just happened over a shorter time period, speeding up the confirmation process as well. 

Of course anything can go wrong with any wave count but here is the kicker, no three waves ever all get extended in a 5 wave sequence, but I would expect equal with wave three and wave 5 length. Wave one is very short so this automatically can make waves 3 and 5 equal in length.

My drop to wave 3 was about 3.700 points, so another 3.700  decline from today's levels would give us the 77 price level, as a target for a new wave 1 in Minute degree. At 71 we would be into all time new lows for the USD!

This would not surprise me if it did do that as that would send the USD bears wild with fear!  If you ever want  to know why gold and silver goes up and down, then look at the USD first, immediately after you look at gold, allow no dilly dally or lag time in looking. 

Gold also took a further beating so we know the effect that the USD will always have on gold and silver. 

Economics editor tweets 'chill out' after spooking market on Fed tapering - The Tell - MarketWatch

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/06/17/ft-economics-editor-tweets-chill-out-after-spooking-market-on-fed-tapering/

US Dollar Implosion Continues! Intraday Chart!

A short intraday update in the ongoing implosion of the US dollar index.

So far the decline has been orderly, and any turning can always be mistaken for a correction in a bull market. All those gold bears are assuming the USD will continue to rally, and therefore are very bearish towards gold exactly when gold stocks themselves are sitting at record lows. Trying to give a support level to an asset class that is no longer in a bullish cycle, will just produce numbers that mean nothing. If the USD is back to a strong decline then there is also no bottom until we may get close to all time new lows closer to 72.

Since this decline sure fits an impulse very well, we may not even be at my first turning with a Minute degree wave one. This is where 5th wave extensions can come into play, and 79 may be a resting spot, creating a double bottom with the potential for a short term violent counter rally.  This also will create a downside breakout situation and the dollar bears will be screaming "downside breakout" . as it plunges. It would not surprise me if after the downside breakout happens that a strong wave 2 counter rally develops and a correction in gold will also develop. Around May 22, seems to have been a top in the USD, and this matches the rough time for bottoms in gold stocks as well. 

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France bans the mailing of gold, silver | MINING.com

http://www.mining.com/france-bans-the-mailing-of-gold-silver-91194/

SIL, Silver Stock Bear Trap Review!

With all the bearish news still out about safe haven stocks, then it is always time to look for a move in the opposite direction.  The $13 double bottom in SIL has been holding, and even if it drops another .618 down to $8 for SIL, would it make that much of a difference?  It would prove one thing and that is that the bear market in SIL was not over yet, but in the end the deeper it goes the higher SIL will travel! 

         Downward-sloping channel means don’t go for gold - MarketWatch

Stocks And US Dollar Charts Paint A Bearish Picture For Gold | Commodities | Minyanville's Wall Street

Gold traders turn bearish as investors pare holdings - The Economic Times

Spot Gold may hit low soon as RSI turn bearish | June 17, 2013 10:45 | Commodity Market | www.commodityonline.com

Gartman: 'Gold Is A Broken Commodity'

Hedge Funds Cut Gold Bets as Paulson's Loss Widens

These recent warnings about staying away from gold ignores record low gold or silver stocks all together. Since these warnings came out in the last week or less, but SIL went up in the next 2-3 days, then SIL has ignored bearish news. In a crash the media always focusses on the bearish news first, ignoring any bullish news. 

In Elliott Wave Principle, and from a Cycle degree perspective, I love those downward slopes, the steeper the better as a steep slope usually means an "ABC" crash has just happened.  Can a collection of good silver stocks inside an  etf go to zero? Yes they can! The SIL custodians exchange bad stocks for better stocks, and most of the time we do not hear about it, but it does happen regularly.

 Can silver stocks get wiped out as a group and all crash to zero? No they can't, only if the etf was not built very well in it's beginning, and they have to do a reverse split. SIL is not a hedged instrument, so a reverse spilt would be rare. Reverse splits are very common with leveraged etf's. 

Every time we hear bearish news effecting the gold and silver market, and SIL does not break to new lows past the May low, then there is a high probability of  SIL already being over on the bullish side. When any type of bearish news falls off like rain of a ducks back, then this is a sign of a bull market already in progress. Another sign of a bull market in progress are higher lows. Higher lows are all produced by "ABC" crashes. 

If I showed you this chart over lunch and pointed to the top in 2011, and asked you if you can see a nice 5 wave structure into June 2013. What would be your best guess answer?  As soon as you say I cannot see a clean wandering impulse heading down, then instantly you have a corrective pattern, and this corrective pattern can be retraced by 100% and go much higher. Even before we talk about the wave count we know that SIL, and even SLV have many gaps to the upside. 

All the gaps in SIL, SLV,  have a 90% chance of getting filled, and they usually get filled within the same degree as the original crash. For an example, if we had a Primary degree crash, then the next Primary degree up should close the gaps.

Many silver related asset classes are all in a Cycle degree 5th wave diagonal , and a diagonal of any kind is sending us a signal that a degree change is going to happen in the future. This degree change will be higher than Cycle degree, and it will be the start of anything related to Supercycle degree. 

Before we ever get to SC degree, we have to find and confirm the ending of the 5th wave in Cycle degree. This has not happen yet. 

Some of the analysts are making bullish calls.

The Bearish “Calls” Always Grow Loudest Near The Bottom

Adam Hamilton: Contrarian Gold Stocks 2 | SilverDoctors.com

Is GDX a buy? - Seeking Alpha

  

YEN, Cycle Degree Monthly Chart Review!

I have changed a few wave count positions and it was the 2013 crash dipping well into my first wave that prompted a review. This dip has now created a 4th wave bottom in what I have to call an ending diagonal. 

I moved my Cycle degree back one wave, and now I have a great looking ending diagonal in Cycle degree.  Cycle degree is my highest degree, so any crash like the YEN would point to a diagonal wave 4 in Primary degree. This is a flat type crash as I only count 3-3-5, with a potential small degree ending diagonal as well.   From a Cycle degree perspective a specific ending diagonal in the 5th wave position is sending out signals. One big signal is that Cycle degree wave counting will come to an end, and the switching to Supercycle degree will cause massive convulsions in world markets, not just with the YEN. 

Gold and the YEN have been feeding off each other, even though they may be out of sync about a year.  In 2008 gold and the YEN roared together, and then plunged together! Are they going to rise together again or do they go to the divorce courts?  Since about 2000 the YEN has been repelled up by the solar cycle. The solar cycle may put in a double top, so this may still last into spring of  2014. If I am close then we should witness a wild zigzag wave up, butchering the YEN bears in the process. 

GDX, Gold Stock Bear Trap Review, With Impending GDX Bull Market Preview!

I have been going over all my Cycle degree wave counts and GDX fits very well with most all other gold stock related asset classes. It acts much the same as the HUI, GOX, GDM,SIL,GDXJ,GLDX, XAU, and I am sure there are many more. They did not all top in the exact same month or even weeks but 2011 was a general time period. 

So far this crash has given investors more time than ever, to decide if the gold market is going to change directions or not.  During the 2008 bottom you had a few days at most, now investors have had a month to think about it. 

The GDX crash did not produce a double bottom like Barrick did, but the pessimistic mood was the same. From 2011 GDX crashed from $66 down to just above $26.  I am sure many are expecting it to go much further. Would it really change anything if GDX crashed to a new price level say to $25 or $21?

No, not really, as it would just produce a much bigger counter rally. Anytime that investors and media experts are in consensus that the gold stocks are crashing and they are still going much lower, then chances are good a bottom is already in place. If in the next few days or longer, GDX handles any barrage of bad news, by declining in price, but then regains it's price, later in the day, or in a few days, then GDX is on the bullish side. Sooner or later GDX will start to head north in a more persistent pattern. 

During every turning a pattern is finished or it is not finished, and many smart people know within 4 trading days that a bottom has already happened. If you can recognize that a bottom has happened within 4 days, then you are in with the best of them. Right now we have had a bottom in, for less than a month as the May bottom seems to be holding.  Every trap be it a bear trap or a bull trap has a cutoff day or cutoff week where the trap is shut, and no amount of bad news derails this bottom.  The bears that are only focused on how far it can "still" crash down to, are far too late and far too slow in their thinking.

We are in a electronic world and falling asleep at the switch is not an option.

How far north GDX can fly to is any ones guess but it would be a sick joke, if GDX, and all other associated etf's were still in a bull market, and GDX pushed to all time new highs.  I have changed the crash within GDX into a zigzag in Intermediate degree, and if it holds we have just suffered a "ABC" crash in Primary degree.  Did GDX only crash 20% making it an official bear market?No it did not, it crashed closer to 60%, and GDX still may be in a bull market in which the entire crash can get retraced, by 100% or more. 

If the bull market is going to happen then this should happened within the next year or two.  Spring 2014 could see closer to the finish, but for now July,Aug and Sept have been shown to be very bullish for gold stocks.

All commodities are in a Cycle degree world, and I have explored SC degree wave counts with them, but SC consistently failed and now I have no commodities in SC degree anywhere at this time.  In 1980 we had a major commodities peak and this peak has been Cycle degree wave three for as long as I can remember. Even though I have tried to knock it off several times, it has withstood the test of time.    

If there is any doubt for readers,  if we are in any GSC degree pattern then put your finger on the 1980 peak and ask yourself, Can GSC degree pass Cycle degree by two degrees?  Can we really be in two dimensions at the same time?  

Maybe in the movies we can, but not with a mathematical Fibonacci Spiral or a Fibonacci string.

Mini DJIA, Intraday Chart Review!

The decline since our May 22 top  has not been impulsive looking as we have too many overlapping waves. The decline fits into a correction and we could see another blast to all time new highs next week.  Since we may be in a small degree wave three and in diagonals as well, a new crossing should cross with a 3 wave pattern. It never works to call a top for May when a zigzag has already formed when we post it. Yet, I have seen a recent post doing just that. 

Next week we will get to a full moon date so this could screw up any bearish wave count rather quickly. The Nasdaq and the SP500 all are following the same patterns, so until we see very clear successive lower lows, the bull market may still be on going.  If the market participants no longer push stocks up on bullish news, then we are over on the bearish side. Another sign that we may be getting close to the bearish side, is when bullish news no longer push the markets  upward. 

After any good news is reported, and the markets make a wild dash north but quickly push back to the downside, then this is also a good indicator that we are on the bearish side. 

Grand Supercycle Degree Wave IV Is A Myth Part II.

 Many investors do not care about the Elliott Wave Principle, as it has been accused of only being clear in hindsight, making any forecast extremely difficult.
I agree in most part, as I have always mentioned that the only place to find a better fitting wave count is in the past, not by creating fancy squiggly lines and  only making cosmetic changes.  Most all my wave counting is done on past chart history, to clear up any problem wave structures, and every time we do find one questionable spot, it changes the entire wave count going forward and backwards.

I have tried counting in GSC degree for 8 years, then rebooted into SC degree for another 4 years, and now I now have rebooted again for the third time, into Cycle degree. I have not found any more places that I can extend the wave counts in the past, so hopefully I will not have to do it again.
Remember, in the regular stock market the waves are always counted where wave three is the longest.

From my Cycle degree perspective there are now two or more major reasons why the markets are not anywhere near inside a GSC degree 4th wave. One major reason depends, if we trust wave three in Cycle degree in 1980?

I find it extremely hard to let a wave count jump ahead, in the regular stock market by two full higher degrees, compared to the commodities markets. The EURO and the USD are still in Cycle degree as well, so I see not technical reason why the general markets have jumped the cue. It should be setting off alarm bells, that we are not in a GSC degree world.

 Elliott Wave is just one big impulse wave, and we have to draw out a completely extended wave three in GSC degree many times, to make sure we know what we are looking for.

This  wave count shows where the 5 waves from a SC degree wave count ended in mid 1837. This is where wave one in GSC degree starts, and that is the first part of a Submillennium degree wave three start. The wave one in SC degree now is in 1929 , and then a wave two crash in SC degree into late 1932. 

The 1932 bottom immediately followed by the next five waves, giving us the start of wave 1 in Cycle degree. Only one more wave one in Primary degree needs to be found, and then from that wave count forward we will get no more wave 1 structures.

All wave structures, after finding wave 1-2 in Primary degree now will terminate, with sequentially larger and larger degree 3-4-5 waves.

This is not rocket science but basic wave three extension wave counting. 

I deliberately left the wave count open with anything smaller than Cycle degree, but If we use 2007 as a wave three top in Cycle degree, then the markets have set a new base with their crash lows in 2009. 

My wave count in GSC degree is only wave three, and it could still be decades away from completing. 

Silver Diagonal Wave Count Review!

Here is a closer view with silver, and I have made some changes to better reflect that correction back in 2006-2008. Many times I have counted that move as an expanded flat type wave, and most always these expanded flats forecast the end of a move one degree higher.  An Intermediate degree correction signaled a Primary degree ending. In silvers case it could be the 2011 top as a diagonal wave 3 top in Primary degree.  I will always try and make the distinction between an impulse and a diagonal wave , because they happen in only a few places and diagonals have great crash forecasting powers. 

For silver I am now going to use the May 19th bottom, and with a month of extreme bearish news, silver has not hit new lows. On an intraday scale, we are looking for higher lows which is the sign of the bull. 

Many experts are saying to get out of the safe haven assets, but they are saying this when the charts are down and everybody on this planet can see silver is pointing down.  Who are the silver bears screaming at to get out? They do this  24-7 around the world, and every trader has instant news on his desktop, so  which group of investors are they trying to convince to sell out at record lows?

I will tell you who! They belong to the "Last Greatest Fool Club"!  They have been around since Tulip Mania times and they will never completely disappear.  

The majority are always late, as they were late to the silver bull party in 2011, and if they are just starting to think about selling now, they are late in the bear market in 2013. 

The top chart fits into this monthly silver chart, and technically the silver bull market started in 1993, not in 2002.  Higher lows is a sign of the bull, and this stayed true all the way up to 2011.  Silvers crash to $21 still produced another higher low, so now we have three higher lows potentially in place. In an impulse we only have two higher lows in a 5 wave run, now we have three already. Clearly, something is wrong when treating this silver chart as a true impulse. I am treating silver as a diagonal 5th wave in Cycle degree, and another silver party may be about to start soon. 

What has a higher probability of happening for the rest of 2013?  A, 61 percent crash in silver to $13, or a 61 percent lift to $34? Who is carrying the most risk? 

The bear with all the short positions, or the bull that is starting to buy, or owns gold and silver stock related etf's already?   In the next few months, will the short positions return more than the bullish positions right now?  All these questions and more, are  80/20 Principle choices, that have to be answered at every major turn. 

I would like to stress the point that silver, gold and oil, plus many other commodity assets, saw a major peak back in 1980. This peak has been a Cycle degree wave three ever since I saw a wave count for the very first time.  I have changed it, and played around with this peak ,but in the end there is very little argument against it. It has withstood the test of time, 33 years of time, and 2014 will make it 34 years.  34 years also matches a potential solar peak to peak length. 

This 1980 Cycle degree base, is a synchronization point, and it always reminds me that commodities are still in Cycle degree. The debate, if we are in GSC degree anywhere, is answered if we count Elliott Waves in sequence. There is a zero chance that the regular stock market already has jumped ahead of the gold, oil and silver wave degrees by "two" larger degrees. If they did then the Fibonacci Spiral, and Fibonacci string would not apply as well.  

The bull market from 2002 to 2011 had a net travel of about $45, and if we add this to a $21 base now, we would have a target of $66 for a potential silver price peak. $66 is a strange number so I am suspicious, but an all time new high in silver should be in the cards. 

Do fundamentals tell you that silver can break out to all time new highs, and bring back some inflation, or are fundamentals telling you that silver is going to break to new all time lows and increase deflation? 

Crude Oil Special Cycle Degree Review! Is it Going To The Moon, $200 Or Only $160?

I like to think that this blog is all now based on Cycle degree wave counting as the largest degree I am working. I find it next to impossible to have the normal stock market jump two complete degrees in front of oil, gold and silver. Between the three 1980 has be a rock solid wave 3 in Cycle degree, and I use that as a clocking and synchronization wave count. 

After this 1980 Cycle degree top then everything can be thrown into total disarray as sequential wave counting is concerned. All long time readers know I am a stickler when it comes to sequential wave counting, and I constantly have to review and check to make sure a better wave count is not left uncounted in the past.

 Hindsight vision is where all, or 99.999999%  of the better fitting wave counts come from, they do not come from any future squiggles, strange numbers and letters written in code, and with subjective trend lines. 

Since the wave counts between oil, gold and silver have conflicting starting and stopping wave counts then there is something wrong and it needs further scrutiny. Reviewing any wave count on a constant basis is all about doing the homework to develop a 20/20 hindsight vision , and then we can turn it into foresight vision when we need it.  Of course as soon as we look forward, all we can see is a thick cloud of smoke and a bunch of "WXYXZ" waves from the mainstream wave counters. 

Since I am in Cycle degree, and in the future this Cycle degree will run out of time and end, this ending will be to a higher degree which would be Supercycle degree wave 3.  When the markets are terminating a high degree, diagonals  should start to show themselves, in which the majority there are two distinct types.  They also  develop in two distinct locations in the impulse sequence. Any "C" wave, and in any 5th wave you will find these horrible waves develop, just  before another degree change. The ending diagonal "always" has the the 4th wave dip into wave 2 but the regular diagonal does not. They are both counted the same and both have the same future outcomes. This outcome is usually dramatic and very violent. 

I have remapped the crude oil futures chart below as a Cycle degree ending diagonal 5th wave, as my wave 4 now dips well into wave two territory. 

An ending diagonal explains away all the choppy and overlapping wave counts that we have had to deal with.  I am working at least 8 Cycle degree diagonals , and I am sure I will find more, so this is not an isolated or rare pattern.  

If the future is to make any sense with any wave counts, then the past has to be sequentially accurate to work. 

I have moved my Cycle degree wave 4 back to 1986. From this bottom all wave counts break apart into zigzags, that stretch beyond anything imagined today. I have always counted like this, as I stretch many wave counts 2.618 times and sometimes more. Now I just put a more formal name to it.

 This is where the 7 wave count is king , and 11 wave counts are also useful.  The big oil price crash in 2008 produced a fundamental oil glut, falling so deep into my old wave 1 price, that it now fits much better in a diagonal Primary degree 4th wave.

We are now stuck with a wave count from 2008 to the present that is choppy as hell, and had me scratching my head many times. I have relabelled our present rally as an Intermediate degree "ABC" with the "B" wave not being secure in  it's location.  Many times the "B" waves are triangles and this may not have fully played out yet. Short term oil is making the right moves.  

I have mentioned the $80 crude oil number before as my entire "A" wave up was a $80 price move. For us to have a nice zigzag still needing to complete another $80, then an all time new high of  $155 or higher can happen. $80 base plus a $80 move brings us to a $160 price target. It is looking more like early 2014, when this will all play out.

Barrick Gold, ABX Stock Crash Double Bottom.

With this Barrick chart, ABX, we can clearly see that it is crashing, or already has crashed. When markets crash like this we have to step back , and see if it was a 5 wave sequence or a 3 wave sequence. Other etf's  point to a 3 wave sequence, and I applied that to ABX as well.  ABX has crashed down to equal that of the 2008 crash, and major bears are still saying everything in gold is going lower or nowhere. All the bearish news that the gold sector has endured ,ABX is still holding that April 2013 bottom. 

 All the way up the price ladder we have open gaps in this ABX chart, and gaps work like magnets, always pulling or repelling to an open one.  We are also at a 5 year cycle low!

Most investors will still be asking how low can it go?, and that is the wrong question, because it shows me you are late in your thinking and, still running with the bears.

 Look at the volume, how many have sold their shares at record lows? Somebody had to buy all those shares which have been dumped.

It would be a sick joke if the 2013 crash bottom in Barrick was a 4th wave bottom in Cycle degree! Yes, it is starting out choppy but diagonals or any part in a diagonal can start out like this.  Barrick's top also floated around $55 so that is not a surprise that it crashed. $18 is a 1.382 ratio from $13 so this bottom has been tested twice already, will it do it a third time? 

When I see a potential 3 wave crash or a 7 wave count, then the odds are extremely high that a 100% counter rally can happen. It can happen within the same degree counter rally.If a Primary degree crash has happened then the next Primary degree rally up can completely retrace the ABC crash and even go to new highs. 

This entire potential rally now looks like it will go well into early 2014. 

Peter Schiff Has It Totally Backwards - Gold Is Not Going 'To The Moon' - Seeking Alpha

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1499382-peter-schiff-has-it-totally-backwards-gold-is-not-going-to-the-moon

Mini SP500, Intraday Review! When Will It Be In A Bear Market?

In most starts to all turnings or perceived turnings, we never really know what type of wave structure we are going to get. This is a problem at every degree level and for one way around this, is to have many alternates always ready to go  for one sequence in Minute or Minuette degree. The above chart is in Minuette degree. 

A downside breakout would help this wave count considerably, and it could take out my bottom trend line. Let's say I always have 5 alternate scripts ready to go, and I eliminate the ones that do not fit well first. Sooner or later the wave counts come down to just a few choices. One thing the wave patterns are telling me is that there are no clean impulse waves, that tells me we may be in a corrective mode. 

If the mini crashes through the top trend line, then this would also confirm that some type of correction is going on. A Minute degree May 22 top only allows for a Minute degree correction down.

I am sure all the fundamental expert analysts will declare a bear market when it hits that magic 20% number. 20% from the all time peak will give us around 1345? That is calculated from the gross price level not from the net traveled level.  I always calculate from the net price of a particular move, and If I used the 20% number, I would get closer to 1478.  

If I use my standard .382 correction, then I would come up with a 1300 SP500 price level. We have had many false starts before, and all we could be going into is a correction that could turn into a Primary degree correction. 

In one weeks time we will approach the full moon again, and this can be very bullish for stocks. 

From this June 25th I count out about 13 months to July 2014, as we could see another low by that fall. Just like many other times years ending with 5 and 6 have been very bullish for the markets 2005-2006, 1985-1986.1995-1996, 1925-1926. I am sure we can come up with a few more dates, but years ending with a 7, now that is a different story.

Treasurys are a 'ponzi market': Guggenheim's Minerd - The Tell - MarketWatch

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/06/13/u-s-treasurys-are-a-ponzi-market-guggenheims-minerd/

US Dollar Intraday Crash Update!

I guess this is what a USD implosion is supposed to look like, as the USD decline looks like a classic impulse . They all subdivide pretty well, but the USD is also getting close to a "ABC" crash as a 1-2-3 count is the exact same thing as an "ABC" zigzag crash.  It is impossible to tell the difference until the 4 wave is completed.  

Any rally in the USD can be short lived as we could have those declines where little to no subdivisions take place.  As we can see we do not have lots of time before any turning, sometimes only days. Are we going to have an official 20% bear market  retracement announcement? It would be a sick joke if any analysts entertains the thought of  a 20% start to a bear market. The true is that the 20% bear market designation is useless for most anything related to Elliott Wave Principle, where we can have 80% retracements and still be in a full fledged bull market.  

Headlines Read, Broad stock-market decline is gathering momentum!

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bulls-are-no-longer-dominant-2013-06-12
Just a few weeks ago we were getting good fundamental news supporting the good numbers coming from the government. Now the headlines read that the market is going to pick up momentum heading down. Of course nobody knows where it is going to stop. Several main reasons is that if we are in a big bear market rally, and the GSC degree wave counters got it right this time, then there is no bottom we can calculated, as any Cycle degree "B" wave top has to fall below DJIA 6500!  If we get a 20% crash then all the experts will be calling the start of the DJIA bear market.  As soon as they declare the start of the bear market then, I am sure the markets will push higher, and breakout to new all time highs again.

We are not anywhere near a GSC degree wave count, nor are we anywhere near a Supercycle degree wave count. Not for another few years or more. Late 2014 could produce another major low and we know the crash before the next solar cycle low will also happen.

Since I started "Elliott Wave 5.0 "Reboot", I have switched or rebooted into Cycle degree wave counting. All my wave counts are not any higher than Cycle degree. All the Cycle degree tops and bottoms "have" to be found first, before we will ever get close to any SC degree top. It is all done in sequential fashion and GSC degree or SC degree wave counting cannot push in front of any Cycle degree wave counts anywhere. Elliott Wave degrees are a mathematical sequence where 3+5 always equals 8. As wave analysts we cannot cheat ,with how we stack the degrees., but many try!

At this time I am very confident that Cycle degree wave counting will hold, as I have been finding diagonal wave counts in Cycle degree consisting of  5 diagonal waves in Primary degree. Any diagonal sequence is a clear warning, if we choose to pay attention to them.  The markets are going to terminate one degree higher in the future, and with that major convulsions will happen.  All wave counters have never had to experience these diagonals, as all other diagonals were at much lower degree levels. Even the book makes very little mention about diagonals, as when it was published there were no real good examples. They stress the ending diagonals but not the type we have today.
The worst thing is "WXYZ" wave counting, as they completely hide diagonals  with a thick wall of smoke.  That lazy "W" wave is the worst, because they can switch it at will, between a leading flat or a leading zigzag. Diagonals are all zigzags with virtually no flats. Nowhere in the book does it say to use "WXYZ" wave counting in any type of a diagonal.

A short list off the top of my head ,where we have asset classes that seemed to be in a diagonal 5th wave in Cycle degree are, the USD,Nikkei,EURO,Gold, Crude Oil,SP500,VIX,Nasdaq,DJIA. The CAD may be on this list as well.  Over time I will make a better list as I have to write them all down to keep track of them. Most all of these diagonal waves are in Primary degree diagonal wave 4,
and many still need a bit more time to clear up.

This Mini DJIA chart starts from the 2009 crash bottom, and I have extended the present wave count some more. This turns the 2011 peak into a "A" wave peak in Intermediate degree, and a longer extended diagonal "C" wave up to our present top in 2013. The May 22 2013 top, has to hold if the bears are in control already. My initial wave down looks more like a zigzag, as there were too many overlapping waves. This means that the bull market is not finished, or we are heading down as a start in a corrective wave. If the DJIA is set to plunge then 15,500 will no longer get breached, and no real support will be there. 

15,300 is my last peak , so if it passes this in the next couple of days, then we could see new highs. 

The wave count above is extended with my wave 1 now well below the 2011 peaks, but a diagonal does not have to crash down that far. We are now looking to the 12,500 to 12,000 point range.

June,12, 2013 VIX, Emotional Bull Trap Reviewed!

The VIX is an excellent visual indicator, which displays the emotional state of stock market investors at any time. As always the VIX does not trend upward as  normal Elliott Waves would display, as EWP is used with the VIX by inverting it. 

Many asset classes requires us to use EWP in an inverted style, and many Elliottician's never do this.  

What this means is very few impulse waves will ever develop in the VIX, except in small degrees. Even when they do they could be overlapped as well.

 EWP in the VIX is always pointing down with its largest trend, and the entire choppy decline can also fit into a ending diagonal. When the VIX does wake up like it seems to have done recently, then if the pattern is a "ABC" going up, then this will terminate and the VIX will crash again. 

My sideways line is an open Gap so it will not surprise me to see that gap get closed in the coming days or weeks. Since the pattern I have looks like another "ABC" up, then a new low could hit the VIX in the next several weeks or longer. 

It is somewhat puzzling, that more Elliott Wave analysts do not use the VIX , as they sure would not come up with major bearish wave counts if they did. 

When the VIX was at an extremely bullish mood in 2008-2009, and stocks were  bearish, GSC degree wave counters had the markets still going much lower via a wave 1 in primary degree. This would have made the VIX a wave 1 top in Primary degree as well. 

As history proved all the perma stock bears wrong, I am sure history will also prove all the perma stock bulls wrong as well.

This all takes time to play out, which is impossible to nail down, but anytime the VIX makes a historic new low, then watch out for a bigger correction. 

Gold Bear Trap Update! Is It Really Going To The Moon This Time?

I hope all readers to this blog understand that "Going To The Moon" is just a figure of speech, as I have used that expression many times.

   Elliott Wave 5.0 "Reboot": Peter Schiff Comes Out Swinging: Gold’s Going 'to the Moon'

Peter Schiff just came out with that expression again, and I would not dare to say something to the contrary, when my wave counts are starting to confirm a potentially strong gold move to the upside.

One major reason that I am bullish is that with all the bad bearish gold news that has come out in the last few months, or since April, 15, 2013, gold has withstood this barrage of bear attacks, and has not hit new lows.

Gold is also starting to form higher lows, which are produced by "ABC" crashes. "ABC" crashes are a sure sign that a bullish phase is in progress, and then the only question would be how high can gold go.  We know that gold will never get to Tranquility Base, as emotions can not travel in a vacuum, so the stratosphere would be my limit.

In reality if gold bulls like Peter Schiff are right, then we should see this somewhere in our wave counts.

All wave counts produced on this blog, have the largest degree as a Cycle degree pattern and since about 2000, gold has been on a wild ride topping in  2011, after which it started a major correction, crashing down into April 2013.
Under extreme bullish fundamentals gold crashed surprising all the experts.

This bottom is also the second time that mainstream experts have said that gold is in an official bear market, with a 20% correction. Every time they say this, gold has turned and headed north. When they are all convinced gold is going north and they start to take long positions, then you can bet gold will head south!

Gold will always travel in the opposite direction than the majority of the players in the gold market. Once the majority hang onto a gold theme, like safe haven buying, then gold will no longer continue to act like a safe haven, and will then crash.
If the majority jump into gold as an inflation hedge, then this theme will also fail, as gold will never allow the majority to benefit from any popular theme or popular trade.

Since I "Rebooted" in Cycle degree, market action has not compelled me to think SC or GSC degree anywhere. Cycle degree wave counting will come to an end, and when it ends or terminates, it will end on a Supercycle degree wave 3.  An end to a Cycle degree, will not terminate without  diagonal and ending diagonal waves. I have as many as 8 Cycle degree ending diagonals in progress and I am sure I will find a few more as time goes on.
Diagonals all have the same message, an end to one degree is in progress and the next higher degree is in the future.

With Cycle degree wave counting I have to make a clear distinction between an ending diagonal and just a plain diagonal. The big difference is that an ending diagonal will "always" have the 4th wave crash down into the equivalent wave 2 price level, but a regular diagonal does not. The wave count is exactly the same, and the ending result is exactly the same as well.  For the last 100 years the markets have not had many diagonals to deal with, but this has clearly changed.

I find it much easier to fit gold into a regular diagonal 5th wave in Cycle degree, where the 4th wave will never dip into wave one. This keeps the wave count in gold as a continuation in it's bull market, but our last waves can be just another regular diagonal 5th wave as well.  My first wave since April 2013 was a 7 wave pattern so this can be the first push in a diagonal that can produce many 7 and 11 wave runs. I am sure this rally will leave $1800 in the dust, and anything well above $1900 would be ideal. 

Peter Schiff Comes Out Swinging: Gold’s Going 'to the Moon'

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100809693

Political Calculations: The Demand Curve for the U.S. Minimum Wage

http://politicalcalculations.blogspot.ca/2013/03/the-demand-curve-for-us-minimum-wage.html#.UbiErfZ4a9A

HUI, A Different Look At Gold Stocks!

I have turned the HUI into a linear chart which reflects the wild rides much better. It always pays to review any wave count at anytime, before the market forces us to change it. It is that 2008 gold stock crash that I had many problems with because it always reflected an expanding flat type action much better. 

When we count the waves down from the 2011 peak, I can count 7 waves. 

When there are 7 waves then alarm bells should be going off, if not alarm bells then flash bulbs should be popping. 7 wave runs are found in diagonals with 11 wave runs. This 2013 crash bottom is looking like a "ABC" crash, and this instantly gives me a warning that the gold stock market can push to all time new highs. 

I don't think it will do it all this year, but early 2014 may work out well.  Even if this rally turns into a dud, and the HUI makes another extreme crash, I would still have the confidence to say that in the future gold stocks will see new all time highs.   Corrections have been sharp downward moves and the 2013 HUI crash has a pretty sharp angle of a decline. The difference between the two crashes is about 2 degrees, so that is not that much of a difference to call one a five wave decline.  Any wave count is always fuzzy up to the time it turns and then it is always time to review the charts on a larger scale. 

If any bearish news comes out regarding anything related to gold stocks, and they take a hit downward and quickly recover, then we are on the bullish side already. It is when gold stocks no longer go up on good bullish news, then that's when gold stocks will be in trouble again. 

Apple And The Golden Bear Trap!

 Some of the popular wave counts have the markets at or close to a major Cycle degree "B" wave top. If this is true then Apple's stock price will go nowhere but down.  When we look at when AAPL last bottomed, in April 2013, then this matches the bottom in gold as well.

Apple crashed in 2008, right along with gold, and then went on a raving mad run north, together. If all the gold bears are recommending to sell gold now, then Apple should also be a sell. Logically speaking, but the last thing that prices run on is logic. 

At this time I do not see Apple wanting to go anywhere but up, as we have gaps working to pull Apple's stock price up. Since I am on diagonal hunting expeditions, it would be prudent to think a potential 5th wave diagonal is starting.

I have open gaps all the way to $700 which can produce a double top. 

My first wave was a 7 count so instantly, this opens a diagonal possibility.

If I start to get too many 7 and 11 wave counts then this also helps to point to a diagonal run.  I only started the first wave, and we shall see how long it will last.  Gold and AAPL are running together, and there would have to be some dramatic reason for them to separate and get a divorce. 

It will not take long for AAPL to either blast up and away, or take out the bottom support. If we get a rash of bad Apple news, and Apple just shrugs it off, then this is bullish. By shrugging off bearish news, I mean that the price takes a hit but soon recovers, then ends up higher in the same day or even days later. 

We can look back to June/Sept 2012 and we can see that Apple made a run to new all time highs in those months, so why not again?  

Comment On A Supercycle Degree Wave Count. SPX.

http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.ca/2013/05/elliott-wave-update-3-may-2013.html

With all due respect to other wave counters, I like to see others trying to create easy wave counts from thin air. This is so I don't waste my time with them, as easy wave counts rarely work. 

At the very top we have three major degree levels and the largest being a "B" wave in Cycle degree. Just below the "B" wave in Cycle degree we have a good old fashioned "Z" wave in Primary degree. Below the "Z" wave we have a "C" wave in Intermediate degree. If we looked back further in history, it looks like all his "WXYXZ" waves are all zigzags!

Having all zigzags alone is technically impossible with "WXYXZ" waves. "WXYXZ" waves are used for tight sideways patterns not for a "B" wave bull market, and never in a diagonal. 

If anything "B" waves contain triangles which forecast dramatic reversals ahead and a major degree change as well. 

I would never ever dare use any "Z" wave as an all time historic high as this never happens.  A "B" wave top in Cycle degree is telling us that the largest wave count he is working is a minimum of a Supercycle degree pattern. 

Nothing short of a complete crash retracing 100% or more of the 2009 price level will fill this wave count requirement, and I bet the next decline will be a Primary degree impulse. 

Elliott Wave Bull And Bear Traps.

Every move or trend that will ever happen in the markets, will swing from one extreme and eventually swing to an extreme in the complete opposite direction.

If any extreme is pointing up, or bullish, then all those bulls will be in a bull trap. They are trapped for the simple reason, the majority can never benefit from any single trade. It is mathematically impossible for the majority to benefit from any gains, as they would have to all sell high to lock in those gains.

In the EWP books it explains how certain wave counts produce tops that are complete bull traps, and they are waves, one, wave three, B and D waves. 

Since there are all sorts of degrees, there are also different degree of bull traps. 

To escape a bull trap, there is only one option and that is to get out, before the rest of the herd of investors panic. A panic happens when the majority of investors see a situation and act on it at the same time. Try escaping from a burning theater when the audience see flames for the first time.  Another time would be trying to get off the sinking Titanic and finding out that there are not enough life boats on board. 

At any major bullish top, this is where we always expect a bear attack to come from. Bears never slash from the bottom they slash from the tops on down and with EWP this is when a bear market starts. A EWP bear market does not start with an official 20% decline as that is a sick joke perpetuated by the fundamentalist. Most all the time, when the mass media uses this 20% number then the markets will turn and blast upward in the opposite direction.
With the Nikkei, they have called a bear market with just a bit less than 20% decline. This is useless information if the entire bull market in the Nikkei is a bear rally itself. 

This entire process repeats itself when investors are in a bear trap. For market charts to be in a bear trap, charts can only face one way and that is down. When this happens then all the bearish news in the world forces traders or investors to play that trend, until there are too many bears riding the same bear wagon.  It should be called a "beer" wagon as all the bears are drunk with profits. When an extreme bearish mood persists, then think who is left to jump on the wagon heading south?  After days of massive media negativity who is so late to feel they still need to get out or play short?  The sad fact is only the investors that are susceptible to bouts of fear will want to sell out at psychologically low prices. It sure is not the smart insiders, and any experienced contrarian, that is selling low.

Massive bear traps are associated with Elliott Waves "A","C", "E", second waves and 4th wave bottoms.

Markets are littered with bull and bear traps, and any wave count in sympathy with any trap will never work.  It is never about the price that produces a bottom, but it is all about the intensity of the mood when it gets there.

When the shear volume of bearish news no longer pushes or forces the asset class down to new lows, then this asset class has already switched over to the bullish side.

Crashing Bonds, TLT And UST30Y.

TlT is continuing it's path southbound, driving up rates at the same time. 

Short term there is no way of telling where TLT will bottom, but I do not think that bonds have seen their major tops. The decline since July 2012 is making an overlapping pattern and this looks corrective. I have two major gaps open below  and there are just as many open gaps above our present price levels. 

The major trend line down will get broken again, but exactly when is another story.  Since the early 1980's bonds have been in a major bull market, but this bull market has been an inverted bull market, with the tail end being a diagonal"C" wave bull market.  This decline we are in, can fall right back down to where it enters my wave two in Intermediate  degree, before TLT will crank up again. 

This UST30Y chart reflects the rates going up as TLT has declined. It is the upward pattern in UST30Y, that does not show a clean impulse , and therefore looks like a 4th wave bearish rally as well. This chart can crash to new lows, indicating that the fed may have room to lower rates during the next major market decline. The market may lower rates, but the fed fund rates do not suggest that the fed has any room to lower rates at all. 

This is what the 30 day Fed Fund rate looks like, and we are at an extreme top with no room to move. A plunge in the Fed Fund rate would suggest a liquidity crunch is in progress. The 2007 plunge in the Fed Fund rate caused a short term liquidity crises and the markets crashed in response.  For the entire decline from 2007 to 2009 the Fed Fund rate declined allowing the Fed to lower rates.

Every time the Fed Rate flattens, it is getting ready to change direction as it has done this many times before. 

U.S. stock indexes slump on global view - Market Snapshot - MarketWatch

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stock-indexes-slump-on-global-view-2013-06-11?dist=lcountdown

Gold Monthly Chart And The Golden Bear Trap Review!

I have created this chart with linear style to show the wild swings that the gold bulls have had to deal with. Most everything on this blog has been or in the process of getting "rebooted" with Cycle degree wave counting being my largest degree. The gold peak in 1980 has been a very stable Cycle degree wave three, and with it we can synchronize many other Cycle degree peaks as well. 

When we look at gold from our present perspective, then I see what looks like a "ABC" crash in 2013.  This "ABC" crash could be just another diagonal wave 4 plunge, and a diagonal 5th wave is still to develop. This last 5th wave does not have to develop as an ending diagonal but a wild impulse will do. 

There is an extremely low chance that key markets that are in Cycle degree, would be passed by wave counts two degrees higher! Without finding all the Cycle degree termination points, then all SC and GSC degrees have no foundation to work with.  We could create GSC and SC wave counts all we want and in the end, they will mean nothing, because we would be out by two degrees.  I think I am getting closer to working 8 Cycle degree diagonals, and they are not all the ending variety, even though the end result will be exactly the same.

Diagonals in Cycle degree are pointing to a termination point of a higher degree, so in this case a Supercycle degree top is somewhere in our future.

No GSC degree wave counts are anywhere in the radar screen at this time. 

Draw a big line across the tops, and if that line got hit one more time we would be well above $2000 in the gold price. A $500-$700 gold rally should shake up all the gold bears pretty well. If we use the 1980 top as $850, then 2.618 times that, will get us to the $2225 price level. Just to frustrate everyone gold will hit $1999.90 and then crash! 

Many are still super bearish on gold, but the gold market may have other ideas.

If a bunch of bearish gold news came out, and gold just brushes it off, then we are on the bullish side, and we will start to see massive amounts of buy stops get triggered.  The gold chart is still creating higher highs since April 2013 and the next few months will tell us if present levels will hold.